Bitcoin might already be two months deep into a bear market, as per specific metrics like the one-year moving average, according to CryptoQuant’s head of research.
In a recent episode of the Milk Road show, CryptoQuant’s Julio Moreno noted that most of the metrics he relies on for the bull score index turned bearish in early November and have yet to bounce back.
This index assesses market conditions using factors such as network activity, investor profitability, Bitcoin demand, and liquidity, with a range from 0 to 100.
“For me, the last confirmation is a technical indicator: the price dropping below its one-year moving average, which I would say solidifies this.”
The one-year moving average represents the average price of an asset over the past 12 months, showcasing long-term trends.
Bitcoin (BTC) began 2025 at about $93,000, soared to $126,080 in October, but ultimately finished the year lower than it started, according to CoinGecko.
If Bitcoin is indeed in a bear market, this contradicts many analysts’ forecasts that predict 2026 as a year of growth for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin’s potential bottom may be between $56,000 and $60,000
Previous crypto bear markets have triggered considerable downturns across the sector, often requiring years for prices to bounce back.
As of Friday, Bitcoin is trading around $88,543; however, Moreno anticipates that over the next year, the bear market low will likely fall within the $56,000 to $60,000 range, based on Bitcoin’s realized price and historical performance.
“Historically, in earlier bear markets, prices tend to drop to what is termed the realized price, which is essentially the average price at which Bitcoin holders acquired their assets,” explained Moreno.
“In bull markets, it often varies significantly to the upside, but during a bear market, that should be regarded as maybe the baseline expectation for a bottom price,” he added.
This bear market’s drawdown seems less severe
A decline from Bitcoin’s all-time high to $56,000 signifies approximately a 55% drawdown, which Moreno perceives as a relatively positive sign, given that previous drawdowns have been far more severe.
“Viewed positively, the drawdown from the all-time high is actually not as drastic as what we’ve seen in past bear markets, which had dips of 70% to 80%. This time, it would just be about a 55% drop from the all-time high,” he stated.
Related: Final nail in 4-year cycle? BTC ends year post-halving in the red
At the same time, Moreno contends that this bear market is showing more stability with no notable crypto-related failures.
Unlike the 2022 bear market that witnessed the collapse of the Terra ecosystem in May, followed by Celsius Network in June and FTX in November—shaking the industry—current market conditions are different.
Furthermore, prominent institutional players are actively accumulating crypto and a greater number of traders and investors are inclined to enter the market, alongside more dependable companies and projects in the industry.
“In terms of demand, there are now more types of players making regular purchases. In earlier bear markets, demand was largely contracting. Currently, we have more institutional investors or ETFs that hold without selling, driving some consistent buying,” Moreno remarked.
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