Bitwise is advising clients to prepare for a new phase in the bitcoin market by 2026, contending that the asset is evolving at a time when institutional investments are increasing.
The crypto asset manager noted that bitcoin’s historically significant four-year cycle is diminishing as halvings become less impactful, interest rates are anticipated to decrease, and leverage has been limited following substantial liquidations in late 2025.
“The dynamics that once fueled four-year cycles—the bitcoin halving, interest rate trends, and crypto’s leverage-driven booms and collapses—are notably weaker than in previous cycles,” Matt Hougan, Bitwise CIO, stated in a Monday blog post.
The quadrennial halving reduces the bitcoin supply growth rate by 50% by cutting down the rewards miners receive for producing new blocks.
With the aid of spot bitcoin ETF-driven inflows and enhanced accessibility on major brokerage platforms, Hougan anticipates these factors will push bitcoin towards new all-time peaks next year, rather than following a traditional post-halving decline.
He also pointed out that bitcoin is no longer the extreme risk many investors perceive, highlighting that it exhibited lower volatility than shares of chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA) in 2025, and its fluctuations have been lessening over the past decade as exchange-traded funds expand ownership.
Additionally, Hougan predicts that bitcoin’s correlation with U.S. stocks will decrease as crypto-specific catalysts, regulations, adoption, and product innovations take precedence.
In conclusion, Bitwise forecasts that these trends could render 2026 a significant breakout year for bitcoin as a portfolio asset, attracting billions of dollars in new institutional investments.
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