As Bitcoin (BTC) continues to fluctuate within a trading range of $86,000 to $90,000 after a 30% correction from its peak last October, market sentiment regarding the cryptocurrency’s future remains positive.
Market analyst Dominic Basulto from The Motley Fool believes that despite the ongoing challenges in Q4, Bitcoin could reach $150,000 by 2026, driven by the newly formed US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.
Is $150,000 Feasible for Bitcoin?
Historical data lends support to Basulto’s forecast; Bitcoin has demonstrated considerable recovery capabilities, with 2015 being the worst bull market year at a mere 36% increase. Notably, Bitcoin has achieved triple-digit percentage returns in seven years.
The analyst posits that 2026 could echo 2019, a year when Bitcoin surged by 95% following a poor 2018, in which it saw a 74% decline.
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In 2019, several factors, including increased global economic uncertainty and a rise in institutional interest, drove Bitcoin’s value higher—conditions that appear to mirror what we see today.
Institutional investors are progressively incorporating BTC into their portfolios, prompted by spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Simultaneously, worries over global tariffs and macroeconomic instability in the US continue to resonate among investors, potentially paving the way for bullish trends.
However, Basulto stresses that Bitcoin can only attain the $150,000 milestone if it is viewed as a long-term store of value. If investors regard it simply as another high-risk asset, they may prefer physical gold over digital alternatives, which have enjoyed a record-breaking year.
The crux of his argument is centered on one crucial factor that could significantly influence Bitcoin’s price: a notable increase in purchases by the US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.
What If Countries Accumulate BTC?
Basulto asserts that if the US government begins acquiring substantial amounts of Bitcoin, it might ignite a global arms race among nations eager to establish their own strategic BTC reserves.
He suggests that such purchases from national reserves could significantly boost Bitcoin’s price, likely eclipsing the influence of corporate treasury firms that have already gathered nearly 5% of the world’s circulating BTC supply.
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While the prospect of hitting $150,000 may seem ambitious given Bitcoin’s recent performance, there are more assertive forecasts for 2026. For example, JPMorgan Chase has predicted a potential price of $170,000, whereas Wall Street strategist Tom Lee from Fundstrat has indicated that BTC could even reach $250,000 next year.
Achieving such elevated prices requires alignment of multiple factors, dependent on both strategic actions from the US government and aggressive moves by institutional investors.
Basulto concludes that if the leading cryptocurrency can solidify its position and the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve gains traction, the anticipated price of $150,000 could be realized by next year.
At the moment of writing, BTC’s price has retraced to $87,330 following an early Monday rise above $90,500.
Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
