Main insights:
Bitcoin is currently consolidating while gold is on the rise, a trend observed prior to previous BTC surges.
Key watch levels are $84,000–$85,000 and the 100-week EMA.
In December, Bitcoin (BTC) was unable to surpass the $90,000 threshold, facing sharp rejections each time it approached the $85,000-87,000 region.
This sideways movement followed a significant decline of over 30% from Bitcoin’s all-time high above $126,000 in October.
Analysts have noted that Bitcoin’s current consolidation mirrors the pattern seen in prior four-year cycle downtrends, where the price often remained flat for extended durations before a definitive trend emerged.
Related: BTC’s rejection at $90K: Is the digital gold narrative losing out to bonds?
As 2026 approaches, will this stagnant BTC phase precede a substantial breakout or a heavier correction?
Gold and silver charts: Lagging BTC price relationship
According to data from analyst Bull Theory, Bitcoin’s 30% drop and sideways trading align with historical liquidity cycles.
In a note released on Monday, the analyst highlighted that gold (XAU) and silver (XAG) typically respond first after significant market stress, with Bitcoin trailing behind.
For example, precious metals experienced a rally from May to August 2020, while Bitcoin stayed within the $9,000-12,000 range during that timeframe.
“Gold and silver hit their peaks in August 2020, leading to a shift of funds into risk assets,” wrote Bull Theory, adding:
“This is when Bitcoin began its upward movement. From August 2020 to May 2021, Bitcoin surged from $12,000 to $64,800 (an increase of nearly 5.5x). The total crypto market cap increased nearly 8x by mid-2021.”
A similar trend was apparent by December 2025.
Gold and silver attained their all-time highs, while Bitcoin was still consolidating, suggesting the leading cryptocurrency could experience a similar delayed risk rotation as seen after August 2020.
“This is why the current sideways movement in BTC is not indicative of a bear market’s onset, but instead a calm before a significant shift,” added Bull Market.
Bitcoin cost basis
An important chart to monitor in 2026 is Bitcoin’s Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) heatmap, which displays the accumulation points of BTC supply at various price levels.
In simple terms, this helps pinpoint where most holders acquired their coins and signals potential areas of buying or selling pressure.
As of December, the heatmap revealed a significant cluster of over 940,000 BTC around the $84,000–$85,000 range, marking the most substantial concentration since 2020.
Historically, such supply zones have formed prior to strong uptrends in Bitcoin.
For instance, in early 2023, robust buying around $16,000 created a solid support, after which Bitcoin steadily rose past $38,000 over the subsequent year.
In 2025, Bitcoin fell to the $75,000-76,000 range despite robust accumulation in the $96,000-98,000 area earlier.
BTC later regained its footing in that high-accumulation zone, indicating that buyers were eager to re-enter rather than exit their positions.
Bitcoin hash rate chart
The Bitcoin mining sector is facing challenges due to rising energy costs, putting pressure on margins and forcing some miners to rely on debt or equity-related financing for liquidity.
In this context, the Bitcoin network’s hash rate has declined after peaking in late October, raising concerns regarding miner distress.
Analysts at VanEck have a different perspective on this trend.
In a recent report, crypto research head Matt Sigel noted that miner capitulation historically serves as a “bullish contrarian indicator,” with Bitcoin showing positive returns over a 90-day span approximately 65% of the time following sustained declines in hash rate.
Bitcoin’s value increased 77% of the time over the next 180 days, averaging a gain of about 72% after extended hash rate declines. This makes BTC’s hash rate a crucial metric to observe in 2026.
Bitcoin’s weekly trendline support
The weekly chart for Bitcoin underscores the significance of this tranquil range as we enter 2026.
As of December, BTC has been consolidating sideways while remaining above its 100-week exponential moving average (100-week EMA; the purple line) for support.
As long as the price remains near this zone, the broader upward trend remains intact, even if momentum is subdued. In this scenario, BTC could rise toward its 50-week EMA (the red line) in the $97,000-98,000 range.
Conversely, a sustained breach below the 100-week EMA would heighten the risk of deeper retracements toward the 200-week EMA (the blue line) in the $67,500-66,000 area.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
