Key takeaways:
The $124,500 Bitcoin high is unlikely to mark the cycle peak, as all 30 peak indicators remain neutral.
Recent losses indicate new investors are capitulating, while veteran holders show no concern.
Staying above the 20-week EMA keeps the pathway for Bitcoin toward $150,000 open.
Bitcoin’s (BTC) decline from its historical highs has raised concerns about whether the market has peaked for 2025. However, analyst Merlijn The Trader dismisses the “$124K top” as mere “noise.”
30/30 indicators suggest Bitcoin still has potential for growth
In a Tuesday post, Merlijn emphasized that none of Bitcoin’s 30 prominent peak indicators have shown signs of distress.
Bitcoin’s bull market peak indicators. Source: Merlijn The Trader
Historically, Bitcoin cycle tops have coincided with numerous “overheating” signals from established on-chain metrics.
For example, the Puell Multiple, which peaks when miners receive unsustainably high returns, currently sits at 1.39, far below the 2.2 danger zone seen before previous price highs.
BTC Puelle Multiple chart vs. price. Source: Glassnode
Likewise, the MVRV Z-Score, which assesses Bitcoin’s price against actual capital inflows, remains neutral, as opposed to the overheated levels seen at past peaks.
BTC MVRV Z-Score chart vs. price. Source: Glassnode
Experienced BTC holders remain unfazed
On-chain analysis supports the optimistic stance, highlighting a classic capitulation phase in progress.
The latest Bitcoin investors—those who have held BTC for less than a month—are reportedly experiencing average unrealized losses of about -3.50% and are now selling, as per data shared by analyst CrazzyBlockk.
Bitcoin STH and new investors’ profitability. Source: CryptoQuant
In contrast, the broader Short-Term Holder (STH) group, which has held for one to six months, remains profitable with an aggregate unrealized gain of +4.50%.
“This is a bullish structural development,” CrazzyBlockk notes, adding:
“The market is shedding its weakest hands, transferring their BTC to holders with a lower cost basis and stronger conviction. This shakeout, while challenging for recent top-buyers, creates a robust support base for the next significant upward movement.”
$70 million in BTC longs liquidated
On-chain analyst Amr Taha additionally argues for a potential recovery, citing the recent $70 million liquidation of leveraged longs after BTC’s price dipped below $111,000 on Binance.
Open interest (OI) saw a substantial drop following this liquidation event. Binance Cumulative Net Taker Volume fell by approximately $1 billion, indicating predominant sell-side strength and capitulation from late buyers.
Bitcoin cumulative net taker volume vs. OI (24 hours). Source: Amr Taha/CryptoQuant
The next liquidity cluster is situated around $117,000–$118,000, which could serve as a price draw if BTC recovers in the forthcoming days. There is limited support below this level, down to around $105,000.
BTC/USDT liquidation heatmap on Binance (1-week). Source: CryptoQuant
“With overleveraged buyers cleared out and open interest reset, the market is fundamentally healthier,” Taha explains, noting:
“The lack of a short squeeze indicates potential upside, especially if BTC recaptures key levels and ignites short covering.”
Is it possible for Bitcoin to drop to $100,000?
Examining the weekly chart, Bitcoin’s retreat appears less a market peak and more a traditional bull market correction.
Since early 2023, BTC has consistently experienced sharp declines in the 20–30% range before continuing its upward trend.
BTC/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView
The latest 12% drop is relatively modest and remains above the 20-week exponential moving average (20-week EMA; the green line) near $108,000, a level that has historically provided dynamic support throughout the surge.
A bounce from the 20-week EMA could set Bitcoin on a path to assault its all-time high above $125,500, while keeping the window open for a broader rally toward $150,000 or even higher by the end of 2025.
Related: Strategy buys $357M in Bitcoin as prices drop to $112K
Conversely, a fall below the 20-week EMA may lead to a deeper correction heading toward the 50-week EMA (the red line) near $95,300. This wave support has historically represented Bitcoin’s local bottoms during previous bull market pullbacks.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
