Key takeaways:
Bitcoin’s $124,500 peak is unlikely to be the cycle’s high, with all 30 peak indicators remaining neutral.
Recent losses indicate that new investors are capitulating, while experienced holders remain steady.
Staying above the 20-week EMA opens Bitcoin’s trajectory toward $150,000.
Bitcoin’s (BTC) decline from its record highs raises concerns about whether the market has already peaked for 2025. However, the so-called “$124K top” is merely “noise,” according to analyst Merlijn The Trader.
30/30 indicators suggest Bitcoin has room to grow
In a Tuesday post, Merlijn highlighted that none of Bitcoin’s 30 widely acknowledged peak indicators have turned red yet.
Historically, Bitcoin cycle tops have aligned with numerous “overheating” signals across prominent on-chain tools.
For example, the Puell Multiple, which rises when miners earn excessively high revenues, currently sits at just 1.39, well below the 2.2 danger zone observed prior to past price peaks.
Likewise, the MVRV Z-Score, which compares Bitcoin’s price to its actual capital inflows, remains in neutral territory rather than at the overheated extremes typical of previous tops.
Experienced BTC holders remain undeterred
On-chain data supports the optimistic view, indicating a classic capitulation phase is occurring.
New Bitcoin investors, those holding BTC for less than a month, are currently facing average unrealized losses of approximately -3.50% and are starting to sell, according to data from analyst CrazzyBlockk.
In contrast, the broader Short-Term Holder (STH) group, which has held for one to six months, remains profitable with an aggregate unrealized gain of +4.50%.
“This is a positive structural change,” writes CrazzyBlockk, adding:
“The market is eliminating its weakest hands, transferring their BTC to holders with a lower cost basis and stronger conviction […] This shakeout, while challenging for recent top-buyers, is exactly the kind of event that establishes a strong support base for the next significant upward movement.”
$70 million in BTC longs liquidated
On-chain analyst Amr Taha further argued for an upcoming recovery, referencing the recent $70 million liquidation of leveraged longs following BTC’s price drop below $111,000 on Binance.
Open interest (OI) significantly decreased after the liquidation event. Binance Cumulative Net Taker Volume fell by roughly $1 billion, signaling aggressive sell-side dominance and capitulation among late buyers.
The next liquidity cluster is around $117,000–$118,000, which could act as a price magnet if BTC recovers soon. Below this, there’s limited support until approximately $105,000.
“With overleveraged buyers eliminated and open interest reset, the market appears structurally healthier,” Taha stated, adding:
“The absence of a short squeeze indicates underlying upside potential, particularly if BTC reclaims key levels and triggers short covering.”
Can Bitcoin price still plunge below $100,000?
On the weekly chart, Bitcoin’s pullback resembles a typical bull market correction rather than a market top.
Since early 2023, BTC has often experienced sharp drawdowns of 20%–30% before continuing its upward trend.
The recent 12% decline is relatively mild and remains above the 20-week exponential moving average (20-week EMA; the green wave) near $108,000, which has historically served as dynamic support during the rally.
A rebound from the 20-week EMA could set Bitcoin back on a path to challenge its all-time high above $125,500, while leaving room for a broader rally toward $150,000 or even higher by the end of 2025.
Related: Strategy buys $357M in Bitcoin as price declines to $112K
Conversely, a drop below the 20-week EMA might lead to a deeper correction toward the 50-week EMA (the red wave) near $95,300. This wave support has historically marked Bitcoin’s local bottoms during previous bull market pullbacks.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
