Currently, Cardano (ADA) has dipped nearly 20% in the past 24 hours, bringing its 30-day losses to 26.2%. The drop has taken ADA to its lowest level in several weeks, though it has somewhat recovered to nearly $0.65.
This recovery effort is fueled by two significant groups — whales and retail traders — who are both increasing their positions as prices decline. But can they overcome weak technical signals and ignite a genuine rebound?
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Whales and Retail Collaborate to Build Conviction
While much of the market reacted with fear, Cardano whales were steadily accumulating. Data from Santiment reveals that wallets holding 10 million to 100 million ADA raised their total from 13.06 billion on October 10 to 13.20 billion today — an increase of 0.14 billion ADA, valued at approximately $89.6 million, based on the current price of $0.64.
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This accumulation began just prior to the market downturn and has continued unabated (they did not sell during the crash). This consistency during a broad market sell-off indicates that these large holders are anticipating stability or an eventual recovery.
The Money Flow Index (MFI) — which tracks money movements based on price and volume — echoes this sentiment. MFI has established a higher low, suggesting capital inflows, even as the price has declined.
This indicates that retail traders appear to be joining forces with whales, contributing to the buying momentum that could form a foundation for a gradual price recovery for Cardano.
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Three Technical Risks Remain Concerning for Cardano Price Action
Despite the positive accumulation, three technical risks persist.
The Smart Money Index (SMI) — which gauges the positioning of professional traders — has sharply declined and remains unrecovered. Even though it has shown slight improvement, the movement is too feeble to confirm a sustained recovery or instill hope among rebound-seeking traders.
Additionally, the RSI, which indicates the strength of buying or selling momentum, shows no bullish divergence. Although ADA’s price reached a lower low during the decline, the RSI did the same, indicating momentum has yet to shift.
With an RSI of 30, ADA is indeed oversold, but without divergence, any rebound may occur more slowly compared to other leading altcoins.
Furthermore, ADA’s descending trendline continues to form a bearish triangle pattern on the daily chart. Lacking a bullish RSI divergence, this formation suggests that downside risks still linger — making this a potentially unstable rebound unless buyers can achieve higher closes.
Currently, Cardano’s price hovers around $0.64. A daily close above $0.68 could set the stage for a short-term recovery towards $0.76 and $0.89, whereas a drop below $0.61 may drag it further down to $0.55.
