Bitcoin (BTC) has faced a challenging start to November, consistently struggling to gain bullish momentum in December whenever November ended poorly. However, this year presents a notably different scenario, with factors such as momentum, liquidity shifts, and deviations in cycles working against the usual 100% bearish seasonal trend.
Key takeaways:
The bearish trend for Bitcoin in December might shift with reduced leverage and the price reclaiming critical technical levels, indicating a more stable outlook.
Macroeconomic liquidity and M2 velocity are diverging from Bitcoin’s buying activity, which typically appears in the middle stages of a bull market.
Bitcoin’s cyclical structure has changed, influenced by spot ETF inflows and global liquidity dynamics, impacting the conventional halving cycles.
Breaking Seasonality and Cycle Deviations for BTC
Historically, Bitcoin has shown strong seasonality in Q4, with December often underperforming after a negative November. Yet, in 2025, the market structure has significantly deviated from past cycles.
BTC’s price has climbed above its monthly rolling volume-weighted average price (rVWAP), indicating controlled distribution and trend acceptance on higher timeframes. A significant decrease in open interest from $94 billion to $60 billion has reset the market without disrupting spot inflows, providing a cleaner foundation for further movement.
From a technical point of view, liquidity clusters have shifted from November’s downside liquidation of approximately $1 billion around $80,000 to inefficient upside clusters. Currently, $3 billion in short positions would be liquidated at $96,000, with over $7 billion triggered if BTC reaches $100,000.
These elements suggest that December’s pricing may be out of sync with Bitcoin’s historical performance probability curve.
Nevertheless, the current momentum can be misleading. Cointelegraph pointed out that the taker buy/sell ratio at around 1.17 indicates urgency rather than depth and often occurs when market positioning is crowded. Analyst EndGame Macro commented that this reflects aggressive buying, but not necessarily sustainable accumulation.
At the same time, M2 velocity has flattened, suggesting that the broader economic system might be losing steam even as risk assets continue to rise. This scenario is typical of late market cycles, where markets seem more vigorous while the underlying economy quiets down.
In this context, Bitcoin’s quest for its first-ever positive December following a negative November will be a measure of whether current positioning can overshadow broader market fundamentals.
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A Shift Beyond the Standard Halving Clock
In recent months, analysts have suggested that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle does not adequately capture BTC’s present market dynamics. Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe pointed out that while the four-year cycle remains, its alignment with time-based predictions has diminished.
Spot BTC ETF inflows have created a consistent structural bid, enhancing price discovery and elevating Bitcoin’s effective floor in comparison to previous cycles.
Van de Poppe argued that this cycle mirrors an extended liquidity phase, similar to the mid-2016 or late 2019 periods, during which risk assets strengthened despite inconsistent macroeconomic data.
Supporting indicators, such as the correlation between CNY/USD and ETH/BTC, typically trend upward earlier in expansion phases, rather than at market cycle peaks.
Concurrently, business-cycle indicators like the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) are starting to show improvements, along with gold’s comparative strength, indicating that risk appetite is recovering from cyclical lows rather than declining. Van de Poppe added,
“If we combine the business cycle strength/weakness with Bitcoin cycles, the correlation is evident. This period resembles Q1/2 2016 and Q4 2019. We’re far from a Bitcoin peak, and still in the final phase of crypto’s easy cycle with extraordinary returns.”
In this framework, Bitcoin’s December scenario relies less on historical seasonal patterns and more on whether emerging structural dynamics, such as spot ETF inflows, liquidity shifts, and changing macroeconomic correlations, prevail over older halving-driven cycles.
Related: Bitcoin looks increasingly like it did in 2022: Can BTC price avoid $68K?
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
