Sure! Here’s the rewritten content while keeping the HTML tags intact:
Key takeaways:
Analysts project a 70% likelihood that Bitcoin will reach new highs within a fortnight.
Strengthening spot ETF inflows and positive futures premiums bolster the optimistic outlook.
Internal liquidity around $114,000-$113,000 may trigger a brief dip prior to a significant breakout.
Bitcoin (BTC) is poised for a potential upswing, with analysts estimating a 70% chance that the cryptocurrency could approach new all-time highs within the upcoming two weeks. Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. notes that the current market conditions are stable and positioned for an upward movement.
Adler Jr. points out that the Short-Term Holder (STH) MVRV Z-Scores for both the 155-day and 365-day groups are close to zero, suggesting the market is neither overly heated nor overly sold. With BTC trading slightly above the STH realized price, this setup indicates a potential one-to-two-week consolidation phase might occur before a breakout. “Uptober incoming,” Adler Jr. remarked, citing favorable seasonal trends.
Derivatives data further supports the positive outlook. Bitcoin futures are consistently trading at a premium to the spot market, with the seven-day basis exceeding the 30-day, a structure typically associated with bullish trends. However, Adler Jr. warns of minor overheating signals that emerged prior to the recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) event, where the cost basis increased on light volume, indicating some late-stage positioning.
Nonetheless, the prevailing sentiment leans towards strength. “There’s a 70% chance we’ll experience a gradual uptrend or sideways consolidation in the next two weeks,” Adler Jr. elaborated.
Meanwhile, institutional demand acts as a robust anchor, as US spot Bitcoin ETFs have gathered $2.8 billion in net inflows since September 9, effectively driving activity into a positive direction. With inflows bolstering BTC prices and technical indicators aligning, traders are gearing up for what could be a pivotal phase in Bitcoin’s next bullish leg.
Related: Bitcoin to test all-time high ‘quickly’ if bulls reclaim $118K: Trader
Will Bitcoin experience a dip, or surge directly toward $124,000?
Bitcoin has gained 8.5% this month, increasing from $107,000 to $117,800 ahead of the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates. This steady climb has left behind several pockets of internal liquidity, indicating a potential short-term pullback before continuing its ascent. The historically bearish lean of September adds significance to this scenario.
However, Bitcoin’s broader behavior in 2025 has often defied expectations regarding retracements. Throughout much of the year, the asset has tended to skip over internal liquidity levels, instead fluctuating between external liquidity zones, meaning swing highs and lows across higher time frame charts over several weeks. A comparable situation occurred in July when BTC bypassed liquidity around $105,000 and quickly surged to new highs after confirming a daily break of structure (BOS).
A similar setup seems to be unfolding now. If Bitcoin achieves a daily close above $117,500, it would confirm another BOS and significantly lower the chances of a dip below $114,000. This would also align with analyst Axel Adler Jr.’s prediction of reaching new all-time highs within the next two weeks.
While there remains a slim opportunity for a retest of order blocks near $114,000–$113,000, improving macroeconomic conditions along with accelerating ETF inflows imply buyers may act sooner, minimizing downside potential. The equilibrium between structural liquidity voids and bullish momentum may determine whether Bitcoin pauses or advances directly toward $124,000.
Related: Addressing Bitcoin’s lack of yield highlights your ‘Western financial privilege’
This article does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading decisions involve risks, and readers should conduct their own research prior to making any decisions.
