Bitcoin’s (BTC) short-term holders (STHs) have realized profits during 229 of the 345 days, creating a paradox as BTC faces a negative year-to-date (YTD) return while struggling to maintain a price above $100,000.
Yet, the underlying onchain data reveals a different narrative amidst this lackluster overall performance.
Key takeaways:
Bitcoin’s short-term holders achieved profits for 66% of 2025, despite BTC trading below its annual opening price.
The STH realized price at $81,000 served as a sentiment pivot, delineating periods of panic and recovery.
Unrealized losses decreased from -28% to -12%, indicating diminished capitulation.
Bitcoin trades near its realized price
The volatility observed in 2025 can be explained through the lens of the 1–3 month STH cohort. As demonstrated in the chart, Bitcoin’s price frequently interacted with its realized price, leading to alternating waves of green net-unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) profitability and red NUPL losses.
In early 2025, BTC traded above this cost basis for almost two months, providing STHs with their first period of sustained profits. However, as February and March approached, prices dropped below the realized price for this cohort, pushing STH NUPL into a deep red zone and marking one of the longest loss periods of the year.
Nevertheless, momentum reversed sharply from late April through mid-October, coinciding with Bitcoin’s 172-day stretch of primarily profitable STH activity. Despite a general cooling trend, these recoveries heightened STH profitability far beyond market predictions.
Only in late October did the market fall back under the realized price, initiating a 45-day period of STH losses that matched the increasing red NUPL area.
Ultimately, STH profitability in 2025 was influenced less by Bitcoin’s directional movement and more by the frequency of BTC reclaiming its cost basis. These rebounds, even amidst a negative YTD scenario, allowed short-term holders to achieve a two-thirds profit ratio.
Related: Bitcoin decouples from stocks in second half of 2025
The BTC cost basis shift may define the next phase again
Bitcoin’s rebound towards $92,500 has tightened STH unrealized losses from -28% to -12%, indicating a reduction in forced selling and the emergence of emotional exhaustion. The STH realized price at $81,000 continues to act as a psychological fulcrum; each reclaim historically signifies the shift from capitulation to stability.
New investors entering the market in the short term are hovering near breakeven, further solidifying this stabilizing framework. Should BTC continue to improve STH profitability while remaining above the $81,000 threshold, the late-year correction could be nearing its conclusion, potentially paving the way for the next growth phase.
Related: Bitcoin new year bear flag sparks $76K BTC price target next
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This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
