Bitcoin’s (BTC) short-term holders (STHs) have recorded profits for 229 out of 345 days, which seems paradoxical given that BTC has a negative year-to-date (YTD) return and struggles to remain above $100,000.
However, beneath the seemingly weak performance, the onchain positioning structure reveals a different narrative.
Key takeaways:
Bitcoin short-term holders saw profits for 66% of 2025, despite BTC trading below its yearly open.
The STH realized price of $81,000 served as a pivotal sentiment marker, transitioning from panic to recovery.
Unrealized losses decreased to -12% from -28%, indicating a reduction in capitulation.
Bitcoin trades near its realized price
The volatility observed in 2025 can be understood through the one– to three-month STH cohort. As shown in the chart, Bitcoin’s price consistently aligned with its realized price, leading to alternating cycles of green net-unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) profitability and red NUPL losses.
In early 2025, BTC remained above this cost basis for almost two months, granting STHs their initial phase of consistent profits. However, the transition into February and March saw prices dip below the cohort’s realized price, plunging STH NUPL into deep red and marking one of the year’s longest loss phases.
Nonetheless, momentum rebounded sharply from late April to mid-October, where the broad green areas on the chart correspond with Bitcoin’s 172-day span of predominantly profitable STH activities. Despite the general trend softening, these recoveries elevated STH profitability significantly beyond what the market narrative suggested.
It was only in late October that the market retreated below the realized price again, initiating a current 45-day duration of STH losses that aligns with the expanding red NUPL zone.
This indicates that STH profitability in 2025 was influenced more by Bitcoin’s ability to return to its cost basis than by its directional trend. These repeated recoveries, even within a negative YTD backdrop, allowed short-term holders to conclude with a two-thirds profit ratio.
Related: Bitcoin decouples from stocks in second half of 2025
The BTC cost basis shift may define the next phase again
Bitcoin’s rally toward $92,500 reduced STH unrealized losses to -12% from -28%, suggesting a reduction in forced selling and the emergence of emotional exhaustion. The STH realized price at $81,000 continues to serve as the psychological pivot, as each recovery historically indicates a shift from capitulation to stability.
New capital and investors entering the market over days to weeks cluster around breakeven, reinforcing this stabilizing framework. Should BTC continue to improve STH profitability while maintaining above the $81,000 foundation, the late-year correction might already be nearing its conclusion, paving the way for the next growth phase.
Related: Bitcoin new year bear flag sparks $76K BTC price target next
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This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
