Short-term holders (STHs) of Bitcoin (BTC) have enjoyed profitability for 229 out of 345 days, a fact that may seem paradoxical considering that BTC’s year-to-date (YTD) return is negative, struggling to maintain a price above $100,000.
However, a deeper look into on-chain positioning reveals a different narrative beneath the underwhelming headline performance.
Key insights:
Bitcoin short-term holders recorded profits in 66% of 2025, even as BTC traded below its yearly opening price.
The STH realized price at $81,000 served as a sentiment pivot, delineating phases of panic and recovery.
Unrealized losses shrank to -12% from -28%, indicating a decline in capitulation.
Bitcoin trades around its realized price
The volatility experienced in 2025 can be understood through the perspective of the one- to three-month STH cohort. As depicted in the chart, Bitcoin’s price frequently interacted with its realized price, creating oscillating waves of green net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) profitability and red NUPL losses.
In early 2025, BTC remained above this cost basis for nearly two months, granting STHs their first opportunity for sustained profits. However, as February and March arrived, prices dipped below the cohort’s realized price, pulling STH NUPL into the deep red and marking one of the year’s most extended loss periods.
Nonetheless, a sharp reversal occurred from late April to mid-October, where the chart’s extensive green regions correspond with Bitcoin’s 172-day stretch of predominantly profitable STH activity. Despite a generally soft broader trend, these recoveries propelled STH profitability well beyond market narratives suggested.
It was only in late October that the market fell back below the realized price, initiating an ongoing 45-day loss period for STHs, aligning with the rising red NUPL area.
Essentially, STH profitability in 2025 was influenced less by Bitcoin’s directional trend and more by the regularity with which BTC reclaimed its cost basis. These recurring rebounds, even amid a negative YTD backdrop, enabled short-term holders to attain a two-thirds profit ratio.
Related: Bitcoin decouples from stocks in second half of 2025
Shift in BTC cost basis may shape the next phase
Bitcoin’s rise towards $92,500 has reduced STH unrealized losses to -12% from -28%, signaling a decrease in forced selling and the onset of emotional exhaustion. The STH realized price at $81,000 remains a crucial psychological threshold, as each recovery historically signifies a shift from capitulation to stability.
New investors entering within days to weeks are hovering around breakeven, helping to reinforce this stabilizing structure. If BTC continues to enhance STH profitability while staying above this $81,000 foundation, the year-end correction could be nearing its conclusion, paving the way for the next expansion phase.
Related: Bitcoin new year bear flag sparks $76K BTC price target next
This article does not offer investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading decision carries inherent risks, and readers are encouraged to conduct their own research before deciding. While we aim to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph cannot guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any details in this article. The content may include forward-looking statements that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from reliance on this information.
This article does not offer investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading decision carries inherent risks, and readers are encouraged to conduct their own research before deciding. While we aim to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph cannot guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any details in this article. The content may include forward-looking statements that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from reliance on this information.
