Key takeaways:
Analysts suggest there’s a 70% likelihood of Bitcoin reaching new highs within two weeks.
Inflows from spot ETFs and optimistic futures premiums bolster the positive outlook.
Possible internal liquidity around $114,000-$113,000 could lead to a slight pullback before a breakout.
Bitcoin (BTC) is poised for a potential surge, with analysts indicating a 70% chance that the cryptocurrency may approach all-time highs in the next two weeks. According to researcher Axel Adler Jr., current market conditions are favorable for an upward move.
Adler Jr. points out that the Short-Term Holder (STH) MVRV Z-scores for both 155-day and 365-day groups are near zero, suggesting that the market is neither overly heated nor overly sold. With BTC trading slightly above the STH realized price, a consolidation phase of one to two weeks may precede a breakout. “Uptober incoming,” Adler Jr. remarked, highlighting seasonal advantages.
Additionally, derivatives data supports the optimistic perspective. Bitcoin futures are trading at a steady premium to spot, with the seven-day basis above the 30-day—a pattern generally associated with bullish trends. However, Adler Jr. cautioned about minor overheating signals observed before the recent FOMC event, where the cost basis increased on low volume, suggesting some last-minute positioning.
Nevertheless, the primary scenario leans towards strength. “There’s a 70% chance the next two weeks could see an upward trend or sideways consolidation,” Adler Jr. elaborated.
In the meantime, institutional interest remains strong as US spot Bitcoin ETFs have gained $2.8 billion in net inflows since Sept. 9, driving activity into positive territory. With these inflows bolstering BTC prices and aligning technical indicators, traders are preparing for what may be a pivotal moment in Bitcoin’s forthcoming bullish phase.
Related: Bitcoin to test all-time high ‘quickly’ if bulls reclaim $118K: Trader
Will Bitcoin pause for a dip, or soar straight to $124,000?
Bitcoin has surged 8.5% this month, rising from $107,000 to $117,800 ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. This steady ascent has created areas of internal liquidity, indicating a potential brief pullback before continuing upward. The historically bearish seasonality of September adds weight to this possibility.
Nonetheless, Bitcoin’s broader performance in 2025 has consistently outperformed expectations for pullbacks. Throughout much of the year, the asset has bypassed internal liquidity levels, instead oscillating between external liquidity zones—swing highs and lows over higher timeframes spanning weeks. A similar occurrence was seen in July, when BTC overlooked liquidity around $105,000 and quickly rallied to new heights after confirming a daily break of structure (BOS).
A similar setup seems to be emerging now. If Bitcoin manages to secure a daily close above $117,500, it would confirm another BOS and significantly decrease the likelihood of a dip below $114,000. Such a scenario would also align with analyst Axel Adler Jr.’s forecast of new all-time highs within the next two weeks.
Although there remains a limited window for a retest of order blocks around $114,000–$113,000, improving macroeconomic conditions and rising ETF inflows suggest buyers might enter earlier, potentially minimizing downside risks. The interplay between structural liquidity gaps and bullish momentum will determine whether Bitcoin pauses or advances directly to $124,000.
Related: Knocking Bitcoin’s lack of yield shows your ‘Western financial privilege’
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
