Key insights:
The Bitcoin Coinbase Premium turned negative as BTC price fell below $104,000.
Bitcoin’s RSI reached its lowest level since April, indicating a potential bottom area.
The 200-day EMA support remains vital as BTC faces risks of short-term capitulation.
Bitcoin (BTC) continued its downward trend on Friday, dropping to $103,500 and causing a significant change in onchain market sentiment. The Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index, which measures the price difference between BTC on Coinbase and other exchanges, turned negative on the hourly chart for the first time in weeks.
Earlier this week, BTC sought support around $110,000, supported by consistent spot demand from US investors. The Coinbase premium even surged to 0.18, its highest level since March 2024.
However, as the price could not maintain above $110,000 on Thursday, that short-term confidence diminished. While the hourly premium has turned negative, the daily reading remained slightly positive, suggesting that long-term US buying support is still present but currently strained.
Adding to the bearish sentiment, Bitcoin’s taker sell volume exceeded $4 billion, indicating a wave of market sell orders. This occurred alongside BTC’s rejection near the short-term holder (STH) realized price of $112,370, a crucial level that is now acting as resistance.
Historically, this level has represented the average cost basis for recent buyers, indicating that sustained rejection below it could expedite short-term capitulation towards $100,000.
Related: Bitcoin holds $105K as US bank stocks recover, Trump truce lifts sentiment
Bitcoin reflects its March–April bottom structure
BTC’s current price movement closely resembles the bottom range seen in March–April, where sharp intra-day wicks cleared out liquidity that had built up over 30 days before a gradual recovery began. This pattern suggests that BTC could retest the $100,000 range without necessarily breaking the overall bullish structure, unless it decisively falls below that level.
The relative strength index or RSI has also fallen to its lowest level, matching the low from April at 34, after which BTC began to recover on the charts.
A key technical indicator to monitor is the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), which BTC has maintained for nearly six months. In the previous cycle, it sustained this trend from October 2024 to March 2024 before briefly losing it during consolidation. This time, the trendline has held from April to October 2025, and the price may lose this trendline in the upcoming days.
If BTC continues to align with its previous fractal, the market may enter a consolidation period lasting several weeks. In Q1, the recovery phase lasted nearly 45–55 days, forming a true bottom only in late April. Applying the same timeline suggests that a gradual recovery may not unfold until late November or early December.
Crypto trader Dentoshi shared this perspective and stated,
“$BTC has consistently bottomed around the 3-day 100 EMA this bull run—but it’s taken 45–96 days to do so.”
Related: Bitcoin ‘bull run is over,’ traders say, with 50% BTC price crash warning
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
