By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
Bitcoin and the broader crypto market rebounded over the weekend, providing a temporary respite after persistent selling pressure had kept cryptocurrency prices low following a $500 billion market decline.
The price of bitcoin increased by 3% over the last 24 hours to $110,770 but remains down approximately 4% for the month. This recovery coincided with an improvement in global risk sentiment, as stock prices rose and investors shifted back to riskier assets.
U.S. President Donald Trump’s milder approach to tariffs and indications that the Federal Reserve might ease monetary policy in the coming months have contributed to market stability. The CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index increased by 4.3% in the last 24 hours, with all members showing gains.
“Though bitcoin has experienced a significant short-term correction, the long-term outlook is different, as the cryptocurrency’s direction is still heavily dependent on macroeconomic factors, including the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, the strength of the U.S. dollar, spot bitcoin ETF flows, and geopolitical risks,” XS.com market analyst Linh Tran stated in an email to CoinDesk.
However, short-term momentum may not indicate a persistent trend. Coinbase Institutional analysts caution that low liquidity, a strong U.S. dollar, and uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve’s rate decisions continue to pressure market conditions.
A surge in U.S. Treasury yields late last week and geopolitical tensions due to Israel’s retaliatory airstrikes in Gaza following assaults on its military while a ceasefire was in place, along with Russia’s advances in Ukraine, have left many institutional investors on edge.
Nonetheless, corporate accumulation has persisted, with BitcoinTreasuries data revealing that over the past 30 days, these entities have increased their holdings by 8.4%, totaling 4.04 million BTC. Access to crypto investments is also expanding, as BlackRock and 21Shares recently introduced their crypto ETPs on the London Stock Exchange for retail investors.
“Overall, I think bitcoin is currently in a reaccumulation phase following its short-term correction, with market sentiment stabilizing and institutional demand staying strong,” Tran added. Stay vigilant!
What to Watch
For a detailed list of events this week, refer to CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.
- Crypto
- Oct. 20: Ether treasury firm ETHZilla Corp. (ETHZ) will execute a 1-for-10 reverse stock split, reducing its outstanding shares to 16 million.
- Macro
- Oct. 20, 8:30 a.m.: Canada Sept. PPI. Year-over-year headline (Prev. 4%), Month-over-month (Prev. 0.5%).
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
Token Events
For a detailed list of events this week, refer to CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.
- Governance votes & calls
- GnosisDAO is voting on a proposal to fund ProbeLab with $105K to develop detailed performance and security metrics for the Gnosis Chain P2P network. Voting ends Oct. 21.
- 1inch DAO is voting to eliminate the 5% Unicorn Power staking requirement for Fusion resolvers. Voting ends Oct. 21.
- Unlocks
- Oct. 20: will unlock 7.86% of its circulating supply valued at $44.73 million.
- Token Launches
- Oct. 20: Falcon Finance’s S2 staking deadline.
Conferences
For a detailed list of events this week, refer to CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.
Token Talk
By Oliver Knight
- Gains in several altcoins, particularly the popular memecoin floki, have improved sentiment across the crypto market on Monday, although CoinMarketCap’s altcoin season index sits at 26/100, indicating a continued preference for bitcoin over speculative investments.
- Bitcoin dominance, which measures how much of cryptocurrency’s total market cap is attributed to BTC, is at 58.8%, up from 57.2% last month.
- Despite signs of recovery on Monday, many altcoins remain significantly lower than they were a week ago. Synthetix is down 30%, with other cryptocurrencies like FET, ASTER, and BNB down between 15% and 25%.
- A significant factor for positive sentiment on Monday was LINK, which gained 14% following a collective withdrawal of $116 million worth of tokens from Binance, suggesting accumulation after last week’s sell-off.
- The average crypto relative strength index (RSI) is currently at 54.2/100, indicating that the market is in a state of uncertainty, distancing itself from key support levels while remaining far from major resistance levels.
Derivatives Positioning
- BTC options positioning remains strongly bullish, with a put-call open-interest ratio of 0.66 and a significant buildup at the $140K strike level, where over $2.4B in notional call exposure is concentrated. This suggests traders continue to anticipate upward momentum as the year progresses, despite increasing spot volatility.
- Total open interest in bitcoin Deribit options has risen to 427,746 contracts, reaching a yearly high. The Dec. 26 expiry predominates ($14.3B notional), indicating traders are extending bullish bets further out while maintaining tactical flexibility with shorter-dated options.
- ETH options reveal a similar trend, with call options dominating around the $4K–$4.5K strike prices and a rise in open interest leading into late December expiries, paralleling BTC’s structure.
Market Movements
- BTC is up 3.65% from 4 p.m. ET Friday at $110,980.77 (24hrs: +3.32%)
- ETH is up 5% at $4,051.70 (24hrs: +2.96%)
- CoinDesk 20 is up 5.52% at 3,706.47 (24hrs: +3.47%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 14 bps at 2.82%
- BTC funding rate is at 0.0015% (1.6097% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is unchanged at 98.48
- Gold futures are up 1.52% at $4,277.30
- Silver futures are up 1.50% at $50.85
- Nikkei 225 closed up 3.37% at 49,185.50
- Hang Seng closed up 2.42% at 25,858.83
- FTSE is up 0.28% at 9,381.02
- Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.64% at 5,643.36
- DJIA closed on Friday up 0.52% at 46,190.61
- S&P 500 closed up 0.53% at 6,664.01
- Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.52% at 22,679.97
- S&P/TSX Composite closed down 1.15% at 30,108.48
- S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.55% at 2,884.62
- U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 0.5 bps at 4.014%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.25% at 6,719.00
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.34% at 25,071.50
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are up 0.19% at 46,469.00
Bitcoin Stats
- BTC Dominance: 59.68% (0.18%)
- Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.03649 (-0.46%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,153 EH/s
- Hashprice (spot): $47.74
- Total Fees: 2.23 BTC / $240,861
- CME Futures Open Interest: 144,335 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 26.4 oz
- BTC vs gold market cap: 7.44%
Technical Analysis
- After retesting the weekly order block during the Oct. 10th liquidation cascade, the ETH-BTC ratio closed the week above the yearly open, signaling positivity for bulls.
- Maintaining this crucial level is significant as the ratio often serves as a leading indicator for altcoin performance.
- With ETH-BTC breaking out of a multi-week downtrend, the next significant resistance is around the 100-week exponential moving average, currently near $0.03904.
Crypto Equities
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Friday at $336.02 (+1.75%), +3.4% at $347.43
- Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $126.49 (-1.53%), +3.43% at $130.74
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $37.78 (-5.34%)
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $57.07 (-0.83%), +2.59% at $58.58
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $19.57 (-3.43%), +4.65% at $20.48
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $20.03 (+2.46%), +3.89% at $20.81
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $19 (-3.41%), +2.58% at $19.49
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $19.52 (-2.33%), +4.38% at $20.38
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $58.23 (-1.85%), +5.74% at $61.57
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $24.86 (-1.27%), unchanged in pre-market
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $289.87 (+2.12%), +3.72% at $300.65
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $23.18 (-6.04%), +2.55% at $23.77
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $14.34 (-1.58%), +3.7% at $14.87
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $5.4 (-3.74%), +5.74% at $5.71
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.88 (+1.62%), +4.79% at $1.97
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs
- Daily net flow: -$366.6 million
- Cumulative net flows: $61.50 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~ 1.35 million
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flow: -$232.2 million
- Cumulative net flows: $14.61 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~ 6.79 million
Source: Farside Investors
