Key takeaways:
Glassnode data highlights Bitcoin’s profit-taking metrics as an indicator of a late bull market cycle.
Bitcoin capital inflows have decreased, and significant profit-taking has peaked since BTC reached $124,000, but a potential new all-time high could emerge in two to three months.
New and short-term holders are accumulating, counteracting the selling pressure.
Bitcoin (BTC) has entered a “historically late phase” of its market cycle, with profit-taking metrics and capital flows reflecting signs from prior cycle peaks, according to analytics platform Glassnode.
Data suggests that Bitcoin’s current cycle mirrors the 2015–2018 and 2018–2022 cycles, where all-time highs (ATHs) were achieved roughly two to three months after the current relative stage.
The firm noted that Bitcoin’s circulating supply has stayed above the +1 standard deviation profit band for 273 consecutive days, second only to the 335-day streak observed during the 2015–2018 cycle. Long-term holders (LTHs) have realized more profits than during all but one previous cycle, indicating rising sell-side pressure.
“These signals reinforce the view that the current cycle is firmly in its historically late phase,” Glassnode mentioned in its weekly report, also noting that similar conditions in past cycles frequently preceded new all-time highs within months.
Bitcoin has declined nearly 9% since reaching $124,000, with a corresponding drop in capital inflows. The growth of BTC’s realized capitalization peaked at only 6% per month recently, compared to 13% during the $100,000 breakout in late 2024.
Profit-taking volumes have also decreased. Glassnode observed that the most recent ATH attempt saw realized profit-taking dip well below spikes seen at $70,000, $100,000, and $122,000. Despite this, realized losses remain moderate at $112 million per day, well within historical norms for local corrections.
Related: Bitcoin struggles at $113K as Fed’s Bowman hints at faster rate cuts
Bitcoin demand is evident, but new highs are elusive
Despite profit-taking pressures, CryptoQuant data suggests renewed demand. The youngest group of Bitcoin holders (wallets under one month old) has turned net positive, with their supply increasing by 73,702 BTC in September.
Short-term holders (STHs) are also aggressively accumulating, adding 159,098 BTC. This new capital is soaking up coins sold by long-term holders (LTHs), a trend typically seen in sustained bull markets.
However, on-chain insights from Santiment cautioned against expecting a quick rebound. Retail traders’ inclination to “buy the dip” has historically foreshadowed further declines, while short positions are insufficient to trigger a significant short squeeze.
Market sentiment has become more negative since Bitcoin fell below $114,000, but analysts observe that fear levels have not yet reached a state of capitulation.
At the same time, whales continue to accumulate, with wallets holding 10 to 10,000 BTC, adding over 56,000 coins since late August. Exchange balances have also decreased by more than 31,000 BTC over the past month, alleviating near-term selling pressure.
Related: Bought the dip? These metrics say $112K Bitcoin price was local bottom
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
