Key insights:
Glassnode’s data indicates that Bitcoin’s profit-taking indicators signal a late bull market cycle.
Capital inflows into Bitcoin have declined, and significant profit-taking has peaked since BTC reached $124,000, but a new all-time high could be expected within two to three months.
New and short-term holders are accumulating, countering the sell pressure.
Bitcoin (BTC) has entered a “historically late phase” of its market cycle, with profit-taking indicators and capital flows reminiscent of previous cycle peaks, according to analytics firm Glassnode.
Data shows that the current Bitcoin cycle mirrors the 2015–2018 and 2018–2022 phases, where all-time highs (ATHs) typically occurred around two to three months after reaching the current relative stage.
The firm observed that Bitcoin’s circulating supply has remained above the +1 standard deviation profit band for 273 straight days, the second-longest streak behind the 335 days noted during the 2015–2018 cycle. Additionally, long-term holders (LTHs) have realized more profits than in all but one previous cycle, signaling increasing sell-side pressure.
“These signals bolster the perspective that the current cycle is distinctly in its historically late phase,” Glassnode stated in its weekly report, noting that such conditions in former cycles often preceded new all-time highs within months.
Bitcoin has dropped nearly 9% since reaching $124,000, and the decline has been accompanied by weaker capital inflows. BTC’s realized cap growth peaked at only 6% per month recently, compared to 13% during the late 2024 $100,000 breakout.
Profit-taking volumes have also decreased. Glassnode reported that the latest ATH attempt saw realized profit-taking fall significantly compared to spikes at $70,000, $100,000, and $122,000. Nonetheless, realized losses remain moderate at $112 million daily, well within historical norms for local corrections.
Related: Bitcoin struggles at $113K as Fed’s Bowman hints at faster rate cuts
Bitcoin demand remains, but new highs are hard to achieve
Despite profit-taking pressures, CryptoQuant data indicates renewed demand. The youngest group of Bitcoin holders (wallets under one month old) has flipped net positive, with their collective supply increasing by 73,702 BTC in September.
Short-term holders (STHs) are also actively accumulating, adding 159,098 BTC. This fresh capital has been absorbing coins distributed by long-term holders (LTHs), a trend often seen in lasting bull markets.
Nevertheless, insights from Santiment warned against expecting an immediate recovery. Retail traders’ tendency to “buy the dip” has historically led to additional downturns, while short positions are too minimal to trigger a significant short squeeze.
Market sentiment has turned more pessimistic since Bitcoin fell below $114,000, but analysts suggest that fear levels have not yet reached capitulation.
Meanwhile, whales continue to accumulate, with wallets holding between 10 to 10,000 BTC adding over 56,000 coins since late August. Exchange balances have also decreased by more than 31,000 BTC in the last month, alleviating near-term selling pressure.
Related: Bought the dip? These metrics suggest $112K Bitcoin price was a local bottom
This article does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trading decisions involve risk, and readers should perform their own research before making a decision.
