Key takeaways:
September Bitcoin options expiry shows a predominance of bullish bets, contingent on BTC maintaining the $110,000 support level.
While there is a higher interest in bullish positions, macroeconomic uncertainties still pose downside risks.
A total of $22.6 billion in Bitcoin (BTC) options is set to expire on Friday, marking a crucial moment following a sharp decline at $117,000. Bullish strategies are well-positioned approaching the expiry as long as the $112,000 level is preserved.
Deribit continues to dominate the scene, boasting $17.4 billion in open interest for Friday’s Bitcoin options, with OKX and CME trailing with $1.9 billion each. Call (buy) options significantly outnumber put (sell) contracts, reflecting ongoing optimism among cryptocurrency traders.
Demand for neutral-to-bullish Bitcoin positions is significant
The September expiry aligns with typical trends, exhibiting put open interest 20% lower than the $12.6 billion in call positions. The final results hinge on Bitcoin’s price at 8:00 am UTC on Friday, with initial advantages for call holders depending on whether prices hold above $112,000.
Traders’ positioning at Deribit reflects a mix of neutral-to-bearish bets targeting the $95,000 to $110,000 range, which seems increasingly improbable. A notable amount of call contracts were placed at optimistic levels, with $6.6 billion in open interest positioned at $120,000 and beyond, leaving approximately $3.3 billion realistically in play.
Additionally, 81% of put options at Deribit are set at $110,000 or lower, limiting active puts to $1.4 billion. This configuration strongly favors neutral-to-bullish outcomes, although more intricate strategies, like selling puts for upside exposure, are not included in this analysis. To gauge if professionals are truly leaning bullish, traders are closely monitoring the options skew metric.
The Bitcoin options delta skew indicates moderate fear at 13%, with put options trading at a premium compared to equivalent call contracts. Under neutral circumstances, this measurement should remain between -6% and 6%, indicating that whales and market makers are wary about downside risks at the current $113,500 level.
Related: Bitcoin to ‘move up smartly again’ toward end of 2025–Saylor
$112,000 is the key level to decide Bitcoin’s momentum
Below are three potential scenarios at Deribit based on the present price trends:
Between $107,000 and $110,000: $1 billion in calls (buy) vs. $2 billion in puts (sell). The net outcome favors put contracts by $1 billion.
Between $110,100 and $112,000: $1.4 billion in calls vs. $1.4 billion in puts, resulting in a balanced scenario.
Between $112,100 and $115,000: $1.66 billion in calls vs. $1 billion in puts, favoring calls by $660 million.
It may be too early to dismiss bearish options strategies entirely. Traders’ sentiment could change based on key macroeconomic data set to be released on Thursday, including US gross domestic product (GDP) figures, weekly jobless claims, and upcoming Treasury auctions.
An increasingly fragile economic backdrop supports potential additional interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve, which usually act as a bullish catalyst for risk-on assets like cryptocurrencies. Nonetheless, ongoing concerns around labor market softness contribute to risk aversion, negatively impacting Bitcoin’s price.
Currently, the September monthly Bitcoin options expiry leans in favor of bulls, but a decisive drop below $112,000 is still a possibility.
This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
