Bitcoin (BTC) began the month facing a statistical challenge it’s never overcome: each time November closed negatively, BTC struggled to turn bullish in December. However, this year’s conditions appear significantly different, with momentum, liquidity shifts, and cycle deviations countering a traditionally bearish seasonal pattern.
Key takeaways:
Bitcoin’s bearish December trend might shift with lowered leverage and price reclaiming a crucial technical level, indicating a more stable environment.
Macroeconomic liquidity and M2 velocity are deviating from Bitcoin’s purchasing behavior, typically evident in mid-bull market stages.
Bitcoin’s cycle structure is evolving, with spot ETF inflows and global liquidity changes modifying the conventional halving-based cycles.
Seasonality breaks and the cycle deviation for BTC
Historically, Bitcoin performance in Q4 has demonstrated robust seasonality, typically reflected by a weak December following a negative November. Yet, in 2025, market structure has sharply diverged from past cycles.
BTC’s price has risen above its monthly rolling volume-weighted average price (rVWAP), indicating controlled distribution and high-timeframe trend acceptance. A significant reduction in open interest from $94 billion to $60 billion has normalized the market without hindering spot inflows, paving a cleaner path for continuation.
Technically, deep liquidity clusters have shifted from November’s downside liquidation, around $1 billion near $80,000, to upside inefficient clusters. Currently, $3 billion in cumulative short positions would face liquidation at $96,000 and over $7 billion if BTC reaches $100,000.
Consequently, these factors indicate that December may be mispriced relative to the historical probability curve of Bitcoin’s performance.
Nonetheless, the current momentum can be misleading. Cointelegraph highlighted that the taker buy/sell ratio around 1.17 reflects urgency rather than depth, commonly seen when positioning is crowded. Anonymous market analyst EndGame Macro mentioned that this indicates aggressive buying but not necessarily sustainable accumulation.
At the same time, M2 velocity has plateaued, indicating that the broader economic engine might be losing steam even with risk assets rising. This creates a scenario typical of late market-cycle phases, where market noise increases while the underlying economy quiets down.
In this context, Bitcoin’s effort to establish its first-ever positive December following a negative November becomes a test of whether positioning can overshadow broader market fundamentals.
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A shift beyond the traditional halving cycle
Recently, analysts have suggested that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle doesn’t entirely capture its current market structure. Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe pointed out that the four-year cycle remains relevant, but it no longer fits neatly within time-based expectations.
Spot BTC ETF inflows have introduced a stable, structural demand, speeding up price discovery and raising Bitcoin’s effective floor compared to previous cycles.
Van de Poppe argued that this cycle resembles an extended liquidity phase, akin to mid-2016 or late 2019, when risk assets thrived despite mixed macroeconomic data.
Supporting indicators, like the CNY/USD correlation with ETH/BTC, typically rise early in expansionary phases, not as the market cycle peaks.
Meanwhile, business-cycle indicators, such as the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), are gradually improving, alongside gold’s relative strength, suggesting that risk appetite is returning from cyclical lows rather than diminishing. Van de Poppe added,
“Now, if we combine the business cycle strength/weakness with Bitcoin cycles, then again, the correlation is quite clear. This stage is comparable to Q1/2 2016, Q4 2019. We’re nowhere near a top on Bitcoin, and we’re still in the final easy cycle of crypto with exorbitant returns.”
In this context, Bitcoin’s December setup is less reliant on repeating historical seasonality and more influenced by whether emerging structural dynamics, like spot ETF inflows, liquidity shifts, and changing macroeconomic correlations, can outweigh established halving-driven cycles.
Related: Bitcoin looks increasingly like it did in 2022: Can BTC price avoid $68K?
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
