Main Points:
Analysts predict a 70% likelihood of Bitcoin reaching new highs in the next two weeks.
Strong inflows into spot ETFs and positive futures premiums support this optimistic view.
Internal liquidity around $114,000-$113,000 may cause a minor pullback before advancing further.
Bitcoin (BTC) is poised for a potential surge, with analysts noting a 70% chance that the cryptocurrency could reach new all-time highs within the upcoming two weeks. Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. states that market conditions are favorable for an upward movement.
Adler Jr. points out that the Short-Term Holder (STH) MVRV Z-Scores for both 155-day and 365-day groups are hovering around zero, suggesting the market isn’t overheated or oversold. With BTC trading slightly above the STH realized price, this setup implies a potential one-to-two-week consolidation before a breakout. “Uptober incoming,” noted Adler Jr., referencing seasonal trends.
Derivatives data further supports the positive outlook. Bitcoin futures are trading at a stable premium to spot prices, with the seven-day basis exceeding the 30-day, typically indicative of bullish trends. However, Adler Jr. warned of slight overheating signals ahead of the recent FOMC meeting, where cost bases increased on low volume, indicating potential late positioning.
Nonetheless, the prevailing scenario leans toward strength. “There’s a 70% chance the next two weeks will exhibit an upward trend or sideways consolidation,” explained Adler Jr.
Institutional interest remains strong as US spot Bitcoin ETFs have garnered $2.8 billion in net inflows since September 9, pushing activity into positive territory. With inflows backing BTC prices and favorable technical indicators, traders are preparing for what could be a pivotal stretch in Bitcoin’s forthcoming bullish phase.
Related: Bitcoin to quickly test all-time high if bulls reclaim $118K: Trader
Will Bitcoin dip, or surge straight to $124,000?
Bitcoin has gained 8.5% this month, rising to $117,800 from $107,000 ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate announcement. This steady climb has created pockets of internal liquidity, indicating the potential for a short-term pullback before continuing. The historically bearish seasonality of September adds further weight to this possibility.
Nonetheless, Bitcoin’s overall performance in 2025 has largely defied expectations for corrections. Throughout the year, the asset has often navigated past internal liquidity levels, moving instead between external liquidity zones, such as swing highs and lows on higher time frame charts over several weeks. A similar pattern was observed in July when BTC surpassed liquidity around $105,000 and rapidly climbed to new heights following a daily break of structure (BOS).
A similar scenario seems to be emerging now. If Bitcoin achieves a daily close above $117,500, it would confirm another BOS and significantly lower the chances of a dip below $114,000. This development would align with analyst Axel Adler Jr.’s prediction of new all-time highs in the next two weeks.
While there remains a brief opportunity for a retest of order blocks near $114,000–$113,000, improving macroeconomic conditions and rising ETF inflows suggest buyers may enter the market sooner, limiting downside risks. The interplay between structural liquidity gaps and bullish momentum will likely determine whether Bitcoin pauses or advances directly toward $124,000.
Related: Addressing Bitcoin’s lack of yield reflects your ‘Western financial privilege’
This article does not offer investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading actions carry risks, and readers should perform their own research prior to making decisions.
