Key takeaways:
Bitwise predicts Bitcoin to hit $1.3 million by 2035, estimating 28.3% annualized returns that surpass traditional investments.
Institutional investors lead Bitcoin demand, with corporate holdings rising and Strategy excelling in accumulation.
Limited supply, robust hodling, and macroeconomic factors pave the way for Bitcoin’s long-term price increase.
Crypto asset management firm Bitwise unveiled new Bitcoin (BTC) projections, targeting $1.3 million by 2035 due to institutional interest and Bitcoin’s restricted supply.
The report, part of Bitwise’s ‘Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions’ for Bitcoin, suggests a 28.3% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the next decade, substantially outpacing traditional assets like equities (6.2%), bonds (4.0%), and gold (3.8%).
Bitwise’s base case estimates $1.3 million by 2035, yet multiple scenarios are provided. In a bullish outlook, Bitcoin could soar to $2.97 million (39.4% CAGR), whereas a bearish case could see it drop to $88,005 (2% CAGR).
This broad range illustrates the volatility still anticipated in Bitcoin markets despite growing institutional involvement.
Bitcoin Valuation Framework. Source: Bitwise
Chief investment officer Matt Hougan, along with analysts Ryan Rasmussen, Josh Carlisle, Mallika Kolar, Andre Dragosch, and strategist Juan Leon, indicates that Bitcoin is increasingly driven by institutional flow, shifting away from retail influences.
Cointelegraph recently highlighted that over 75% of Bitcoin trading volume on Coinbase is attributed to institutional investors, historically linked to significant price shifts. This level of engagement has reached a point where demand outstrips daily mining output by up to six times, leading to notable supply-demand disparities.
This shift in market dynamics is also reflected in recent developments. Corporate Bitcoin adoption has rapidly increased, with 35 publicly traded companies each holding a minimum of 1,000 BTC, rising from 24 at the end of Q1 2025. Total corporate Bitcoin purchases surged 35% quarter-on-quarter in Q2 2025, escalating from 99,857 BTC to 134,456 BTC.
MicroStrategy continues to lead in corporate accumulation, having made its fourth monthly Bitcoin purchase on Aug. 25, raising its total holdings to over 632,457 BTC worth more than $71 billion. The company reflects over 53% unrealized gains on its Bitcoin investment, amounting to $25 billion in unrealized profits.
Related: Bitcoin megaphone pattern targets $260K as BTC price screams ‘oversold’
Bitcoin supply scarcity, macroeconomic tailwinds create a perfect storm
With 94.8% of total BTC supply currently in circulation and annual issuance decreasing to 0.2% by 2032 from 0.8%, Bitwise asserts that new Bitcoin production cannot fulfill rising institutional demand. Unlike conventional commodities, Bitcoin’s supply remains fixed regardless of price increases.
Bitwise stresses that “the inelastic supply of Bitcoin, coupled with sustained demand growth, is the critical factor driving our long-term assumptions.”
This scarcity is further emphasized by the fact that approximately 70% of Bitcoin supply has not moved in over a year, indicating strong hodling tendencies among current holders.
Growing concerns over fiat currency devaluation add further impetus for Bitcoin adoption. U.S. federal debt has surged by $13 trillion in five years to $36.2 trillion, with annual interest payments totaling $952 billion, the fourth-largest federal budget item. As interest rates surpass projected GDP growth, the pressure on traditional currencies intensifies.
US federal debt data. Source: Bitwise
The combination of restricted supply, accelerating institutional adoption, and macroeconomic uncertainty creates what analysts term a “perfect storm” for Bitcoin price growth.
As miners produce only 450 BTC daily while institutions withdraw over 2,500 BTC within 48-hour spans, the supply-demand imbalance seems primed to catalyze substantial price discovery in the upcoming decade.
Related: Bitcoin trend reversal to $118K or another drop to $105K: Which comes first?
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
