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The price structure of Bitcoin has shifted to a negative signal, and the Bull‑Bear Index indicates diminishing spot demand paired with increasing pressure from derivatives, placing BTC in a risk-averse, bearish environment until indicators improve.
Summary
- Adler AM’s Structure Shift composite has fallen to −0.5 on a −1 to +1 scale, indicating a bearish market as Bitcoin’s price approaches the lower limit of its 21‑day Donchian Channel.
- The Bull‑Bear Index reports the bullish component around 5%, while the swiftly declining bearish component turns negative, suggesting that short-term derivatives positioning is dominating the weaker spot bids.
- A transition back to a risk-on environment would necessitate the composite surpassing zero along with the bullish component recovering above 5%; otherwise, a breakdown of support could lead to a deeper correction.
Currently, Bitcoin’s price is hovering around $86–87,000, down roughly 3–4% over the past 24 hours, with trading volumes in the mid‑$30 to $40 billion range, reflecting a weak sell‑the‑bounce sentiment rather than aggressive buying on dips.
Throughout the day, BTC is positioned within the lower half of its recent 24-hour range, with derivatives data showing negative short-term performance and a drop in the 24-hour return on major dashboards, aligning with a risk-averse environment amidst an already soft market.
Bitcoin price moving into negative territory
The composite structure signal has entered negative territory, with the rapid components of the Bull-Bear Index highlighting increased pressure from derivatives markets, as the analysis reports.
The Structure Shift composite indicator, which gauges market structure on a scale from -1 to +1, has dropped to -0.5 according to the findings. Values below zero indicate dominance of a bearish regime. Bitcoin’s price is near the bottom boundary of the 21-day Donchian Channel and trades close to channel support, according to the data.
The Bull-Bear Index, which distinguishes market pressure into bullish and bearish segments, indicates that the bullish component has decreased to 5 percent, while the fast bearish component has dipped into negative territory, based on the analysis. These fast components mirror short-term derivatives dynamics.
The index’s setup suggests that short-term momentum favors bearish stances and that spot demand is not strong enough to counteract the pressure from the futures market, as the report outlines.
Both indicators signal a structural shift toward bearish conditions, corroborated by the composite signal and Bull-Bear regime dynamics, according to Adler AM. The analysis emphasizes that negative signal values reflect a combination of structural factors like trend, momentum, and positioning shifting in favor of bears.
A pivotal reference point for a change in regime would involve the composite signal rebounding above zero concurrently with the Bull-Bear bullish component exceeding the 5 percent mark, per the report. Until such recovery is observed, the structure will remain risk-averse, according to the analysis.
The primary risk mentioned in the report is heightened derivatives pressure on a potential breakdown of support, which could precipitate a sharper correction. From a structural perspective, this area does not represent clean “buy territory”; rather, it indicates a distribution phase where recoveries towards previous resistance levels appear more as opportunities to reduce risk than to increase, unless the data changes. Funding and futures performance are currently leaning risk-averse on a 24-hour basis, while BTC trades approximately 25–30% below its euro-denominated peak from October, with modestly negative returns for 2025 after a 120%+ gain the previous year, all pointing towards a mature, over-accumulated asset that is addressing excess rather than embarking on a new impulsive trend.
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