Key insights:
$33 trillion in debt is set to mature in advanced economies by 2026, creating a refinancing challenge that may limit liquidity and impact riskier assets due to persistently high borrowing costs.
Global liquidity is expected to peak in late 2025, which has historically indicated a transition to tighter markets.
Secular bull markets after WWII have typically lasted 18 to 19 years; the current market began in 2009 and may continue until 2028, despite some mid-cycle disruptions.
An increasing number of crypto analysts believe the traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle has changed. They cite factors like 95% of Bitcoin being mined, approximately 1 million BTC held in corporate treasuries, and growing macroeconomic and regulatory influences on price movements.
Whether the halving cycle is completely gone or has shifted to accommodate new price determinants, Bitcoin is now closely tied to traditional finance, where liquidity cycles, refinancing issues, and long-term valuations dictate trends. Grasping these traditional finance rhythms may be as critical for Bitcoin’s trajectory as its halving cycle.
The refinancing cycle: A 2026 evaluation
According to the Institute of International Finance, global debt reached around $315 trillion by Q1 2024. With a seven-year average maturity, nearly $50 trillion in debts need to be refinanced annually, as noted by the Financial Times.
The real pressure will be felt in 2026, when the annual “maturity wall” in advanced economies is projected to rise by nearly 20%, reaching over $33 trillion—almost triple the yearly capital expenditures of these economies. Refinancing such significant amounts at current elevated rates could challenge both governments and corporations, particularly those with weaker credit ratings.
This maturity wall could pose a genuine stress test for risk-taking assets—stocks, high-yield bonds, emerging-market debt, and cryptocurrencies. The substantial refinancing demands will consume market liquidity, leaving less available for riskier investments.
In an environment of tightened funding (even if the Fed begins rate cuts this fall, rates will still be substantially higher than the 2010–2021 period when much of this debt was raised), a squeeze could occur, leading to rising capital costs, widening credit spreads, and investors demanding higher risk premiums.
Assets that thrive on abundant liquidity and low capital costs may experience pressures on valuations, reduced inflows, and increased volatility as refinancing needs outpace marginal borrowers.
For Bitcoin, this could align with the concluding phase of its four-year cycle—a bear market. Without a significant increase in global liquidity (FT analysts suggest an annual rise of 8%–10% is necessary for stability), the refinancing wall may prove detrimental.
Will liquidity cycles constrict in 2026?
Currently, global liquidity continues to expand. M2 in the four largest central banks grew by 7% year-to-date, reaching $95 trillion by June 2025. A broader measure from economist Michael Howell (including short-term credit liabilities and household and corporate cash) reached $182.8 trillion in Q2 2025, up $11.4 trillion since the end of 2024, representing about 1.6 times the global GDP.
Nonetheless, liquidity follows cyclical patterns, as demonstrated by Howell’s global liquidity index. It bottomed out in December 2022 and signals a peak by late 2025. Historically, liquidity highs often precede volatility: as funding conditions tighten in subsequent periods, money market rates tend to rise and investors begin selling off riskier assets.
US bank reserves reflect a similar trend. Currently at $3.2 trillion, reserves are still considered “abundant” by the New York Fed, although attempts to lower them aim for a more “ample” status.
In this context, if liquidity starts contracting in 2026, the impact on Bitcoin could deepen the ongoing bear market. However, if escalating debt pressures prompt central banks to reverse policies and infuse liquidity—contradicting Howell’s projected liquidity cycle—the resulting growth could provide Bitcoin with newfound support.
Related: BTC bull run over at $111K? 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week
Secular trends may reach a peak in 2028
In addition to liquidity and refinancing, broader market cycles are important. The Kobeissi Letter, utilizing the CAPE (Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings) model, indicates the current secular bull market, which commenced in 2009, has lasted 16 years thus far. The 1982–2000 cycle rose by 114% before concluding with the dot-com crash, while the 1949–1968 cycle experienced smaller peaks and greater pullbacks toward the end.
Analysts suggest today’s market mirrors the 1960s more closely than the late-1990s blow-off. CAPE models propose that returns might accelerate slightly before this secular trend concludes, potentially around 2028, if past cycles of 18 and 19 years serve as indicators. They add,
“This bull run is incredibly robust.”
For Bitcoin, this could imply a less severe bear market in 2026, followed by a vigorous recovery in 2027 and 2028, coinciding with the next halving.
Ultimately, no singular factor determines the future. Debt levels, liquidity fluctuations, policy changes, technological advancements, and investor sentiment all influence the economy in various ways. Markets rise and fall due to the interplay of these elements rather than any single factor. For Bitcoin as well, its future trajectory will depend on a combination of halvings, liquidity peaks, and the intricate complexities of the environment it now occupies.
This article does not provide investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading decision contains risks, and readers should perform their own research before proceeding.
