The recent price decline of Bitcoin (BTC) has reignited worries among investors about a more significant downturn; however, various market analysts suggest that a prolonged correction could be beneficial for the long run.
Key insights:
Analysts indicate that Bitcoin’s downside risk is concentrated around $65,000 to $75,000.
A potential three-day bullish divergence is developing, which might coincide with a local bottom once momentum stabilizes.
Current price action of BTC defined by supply rotation and oversold conditions
Crypto trader Jackis stated that the ongoing move represents a macroeconomic range for 2025, emphasizing that even a fall to $70,000 wouldn’t mirror past bear markets. Unlike the situations of 2022 or early 2024, the current decline lacks systemic macro-driven risk-off pressure, illustrating a supply rotation from early holders to institutional players.
Furthermore, analyst Jelle pointed out a potential bullish divergence on Bitcoin’s three-day chart. Historical three-day divergences during this cycle have aligned with local bottoms, though the trader noted that confirmation will require additional time and consolidation.
Julien Bittel, head of macro research at Global Macro Investor, supported this perspective by highlighting Bitcoin’s historical behavior following oversold RSI readings below 30.
Data shows that Bitcoin typically follows a well-established recovery path after such conditions arise. While short-term volatility is expected, Bittel believes that bases often require time to establish, usually accompanied by erratic price action before a robust uptrend resumes.
Bittel suggests that the traditional four-year halving cycle is no longer the primary factor influencing Bitcoin’s price movement. Instead, extended debt refinancing cycles and evolving liquidity dynamics imply that the current market structure may persist well into 2026.
Related: Bitcoin price at ‘critical’ juncture as whale transfers $348M BTC to exchanges
Longer Bitcoin cycles favor moderate yet higher returns
Jurrien Timmer, director of Global Macro at Fidelity, positioned the current phase within a broader wave structure from 2022 to 2025. This period has already produced a 105% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over 145 weeks, closely mirroring long-term regression models.
While Timmer acknowledged Bitcoin might face a deeper correction into the $65,000 to $75,000 area in 2026, he underscored that these zones have historically served as strong buy areas.
Looking further ahead, Timmer anticipates that future cycles will develop with flatter trajectories as adoption becomes more widespread. Nonetheless, price modeling indicates a potential path towards $300,000 by 2029, depending on whether a new expansion phase unfolds.
In this framework, corrective phases may lay the groundwork for Bitcoin’s next structural leap.
Related: Has Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle broken, and is the bull market truly finished?
This article is not intended as investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading decision carries risk, and readers are encouraged to do their own research. While we aim to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph cannot guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the content. This article may contain forward-looking statements subject to risks and uncertainties, and Cointelegraph will not be liable for any losses arising from reliance on this information.
This article is not intended as investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading decision carries risk, and readers are encouraged to do their own research. While we aim to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph cannot guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the content. This article may contain forward-looking statements subject to risks and uncertainties, and Cointelegraph will not be liable for any losses arising from reliance on this information.
