Key takeaways:
$33 trillion in debt will mature across advanced economies in 2026, creating a refinancing wall that may deplete liquidity and impact risk-on assets as borrowing costs stay elevated.
Global liquidity is expected to peak in late 2025, historically indicating tighter market conditions.
Secular bull markets since WWII typically last 18 to 19 years; the current one, which began in 2009, might continue until 2028 despite mid-cycle disruptions.
An increasing number of crypto market analysts suggest that the traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle is no longer relevant. They cite several reasons: 95% of Bitcoin has already been mined, approximately 1 million BTC is held in corporate treasuries, and macroeconomic and regulatory influences are increasingly shaping price movements.
Regardless of whether the halving cycle has vanished or simply adapted to accommodate other price influences, Bitcoin is now linked to traditional finance, where cycles of liquidity, refinancing, and long-term valuations play a vital role. Grasping these TradFi patterns could be as essential for Bitcoin’s prospects as its halving cycle.
The refinancing cycle: A 2026 stress test
According to the Institute of International Finance, global debt reached approximately $315 trillion in Q1 2024. With an average maturity of seven years, about $50 trillion in obligations need to be refinanced annually, as highlighted by the Financial Times.
The real challenge will arise in 2026, when the annual “maturity wall” in developed economies will increase by nearly 20%, exceeding $33 trillion—almost triple these economies’ yearly capital expenditures. Refinancing such amounts at current elevated rates could put pressure on both governments and corporations, particularly those with weaker credit ratings.
This maturity wall may serve as a genuine stress test for risk-on assets, including equities, high-yield bonds, emerging-market debt, and cryptocurrencies. The significant refinancing needs will consume market liquidity, allowing less space for riskier assets. With funding conditions remaining tight (even if the Fed begins rate cuts this fall, they will still be higher than the 2010–2021 levels during which much of this debt was issued), this creates a squeeze where capital costs rise, credit spreads widen, and investors seek increased risk premiums. Risk-on assets, which heavily rely on ample liquidity and low funding costs, could confront valuation pressures, diminished inflows, and heightened volatility as refinancing demands outstrip marginal borrowers.
For Bitcoin, this scenario will align with the final phase of its four-year cycle—the bear market. Without a significant expansion in global liquidity (FT analysts contend that an 8–10% increase is now necessary annually to maintain stability), the refinancing wall could lead to severe repercussions.
Could liquidity cycles tighten in 2026?
Currently, global liquidity continues to rise. M2 across the four largest central banks increased by 7% year-to-date, reaching $95 trillion in June 2025. A broader measure from economist Michael Howell (which includes short-term credit liabilities plus household and corporate cash) hit $182.8 trillion in Q2 2025, reflecting an increase of $11.4 trillion since the end of 2024 and about 1.6 times global GDP.
Nevertheless, liquidity tends to cycle, as demonstrated by Howell’s global liquidity index. It reached a low in December 2022 and now indicates a peak by late 2025. Historically, peaks in liquidity often signal impending volatility: as funding tightens afterward, money market rates can surge, prompting investors to sell risk-on assets.
Global liquidity cycle (advanced economies). Source: Michael Howell, CrossBorder Capital
US bank reserves illustrate a similar trend. With reserves at $3.2 trillion, they are considered “abundant,” according to the New York Fed, although balance-sheet adjustments aim to reduce them to merely “ample” levels.
From this viewpoint, should liquidity begin to contract in 2026, Bitcoin would likely experience adverse effects, exacerbating any existing bear market. However, if escalating debt pressures compel central banks to pivot and inject liquidity—overriding Howell’s projected liquidity cycle—the ensuing expansion could provide Bitcoin with renewed momentum.
Related: BTC bull run over at $111K? 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week
Secular trends could come to a head in 2028
In addition to liquidity and refinancing, long-term market cycles also play a significant role. The Kobeissi Letter, utilizing the CAPE (Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings) model, indicates that the current secular bull market commenced in 2009 and has lasted 16 years thus far. The cycle from 1982 to 2000 rose by 114% before concluding with the dot-com crash, while the 1949 to 1968 period experienced less dramatic peaks and more significant pullbacks towards the end.
Secular economy trends. Source: Fidelity
According to the analysts, today’s market resembles the 1960s trend more than the late-1990s surge. CAPE models suggest that returns could see a slight acceleration before this secular wave culminates, potentially around 2028, if past cycles lasting 19 and 18 years are a reliable reference. They add,
“This bull run is incredibly strong.”
For Bitcoin, this could imply a more manageable bear market in 2026 and a vigorous recovery in 2027 and 2028, coinciding with the next halving.
Ultimately, no single indicator dictates the future. Debt burdens, liquidity cycles, policy changes, innovation, and investor sentiment all influence the economy in diverse ways. Markets fluctuate based on the interaction of these dynamics rather than a solitary factor. For Bitcoin, too, the trajectory ahead will be shaped by a broad array of considerations, beyond just halvings or liquidity peaks, reflecting the complex environment it now occupies.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
