As Sunday approaches its weekly close, Bitcoin (BTC) is targeting the weekend highs while attention is drawn to the yearly candle.
Key points:
Bitcoin is experiencing an unusually tranquil weekend as analysis points to a three-day bullish divergence solidifying.
It might take until the new year for capital to re-enter the market and for the BTC price dynamics to shift.
Year-to-date, Bitcoin is down 6%, potentially indicating a bearish record following the last halving event.
New Year Might Bring $100,000 BTC Price
According to data from TradingView, BTC price action has approached $88,000 following two days of minimal volatility.
Friday witnessed familiar false breakouts as liquidity hunts coincided with an unprecedented $24 billion options expiry event. As reported by Cointelegraph, this was believed to be exerting downward pressure on prices.
Current bullish perspectives feature a significant relative strength index (RSI) divergence on three-day charts.
Trader Jelle remarked on X, “Bitcoin has formed a three-day bullish divergence right atop key support.”
“The last two bottoms were characterized by 3-day divergences as well. Is it time for history to repeat itself?”
Trader BitBull expressed optimism regarding seasonality influencing a BTC price rebound, arguing that institutions would begin to invest in “underperforming assets” in early January.
“This could initiate a breakout from this trendline and propel the price towards $100K,” he forecasted on Friday.
$BTC likely has 5-6 days of sideways price movement ahead.
As we close 2025, expect the following:
– Those who sold at a loss for tax purposes will repurchase BTC
– Investors will traditionally channel funds into underperforming assets in January 2026.
This could signal a… pic.twitter.com/3NejU5j2do
— BitBull (@AkaBull_) December 26, 2025
Trader and analyst Aksel Kibar noted that Bitcoin’s constrained range and lack of volatility are unsurprising given the sharp rise during Q3.
“Volatility operates in cycles,” he shared with followers on X.
“After high volatility, we experience low volatility until a clear chart pattern emerges for us to leverage.”
Bitcoin Yearly Candle Challenges Four-Year Cycle
With only days remaining until the 2025 yearly candle closes, Bitcoin faces the possibility of making bearish history.
Related: Bitcoin ETFs lose $825M in five days as US becomes ‘biggest seller’ of BTC
Currently, BTC/USD is down 6.1% year-to-date, on track for its first “red” post-halving year ever.
This has led to discussions suggesting that the traditional four-year cycle concept of BTC price action may no longer align with current trends.
Bitcoin has 4 days left to register a green close for the yearly candle.
If it closes red, it would mark the first time in 14 years for a 3rd bull-market year, indicating a structural shift and potentially breaking the four-year cycle theory pic.twitter.com/JjQ8QVtC6f
— Ajay Kashyap (@EverythingAjay) December 27, 2025
Keith Alan, co-founder of the trading resource Material Indicators, highlighted the significance of the yearly candle’s color.
“Wicks breaching key levels are expected – but it’s the closes that truly matter,” he noted on Christmas Day alongside a chart from one of Material Indicators’ proprietary trading tools.
“Staying in the holiday spirit, I’m particularly interested in whether we will see a red or green candle closing Q4 and the year, and I will be seeking new macro insights from Trend Precognition at the January open.”
Alan mentioned that the yearly opening around $93,500 could still face a last-minute retest.
This article does not provide investment advice or recommendations. Each investment and trading move carries risks, and readers should conduct their own research before making any decisions. While we strive for accuracy and timeliness, Cointelegraph cannot guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may also contain forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any losses or damages arising from reliance on this information.
This article does not provide investment advice or recommendations. Each investment and trading action carries risks, and readers should conduct their own research before making decisions. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may also contain forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any losses or damages arising from reliance on this information.
