Following four consecutive sessions dominated by redemptions that withdrew over $1.2 billion from spot Bitcoin ETFs, US issuers experienced a significant turnaround on Oct. 21, attracting $477.2 million in new investments. This marked the first positive outcome since Oct. 14 and represented the largest single-day net increase in two weeks.
Leading this recovery, BlackRock’s IBIT recorded +$210.9 million, trailed by ARK Invest’s ARKB (+$162.9 million) and Fidelity’s FBTC (+$34.1 million). Additional smaller inflows came from Franklin’s EZBC (+$8.9 million) and Invesco’s BTCO (+$6.5 million), while Grayscale’s GBTC continued to see losses of -$13.9 million. This rebound helped reduce the total redemptions for October following Bitcoin’s price decline amidst macroeconomic pressures.
This change in trend followed a tough week for ETF issuers. Between Oct. 15 and 20, daily outflows peaked at -$530 million, with IBIT and FBTC experiencing rare consecutive redemptions and GBTC’s losses widening.
The resultant $1 billion net drawdown marked one of the sharpest declines since April. Monday’s reversal indicates that some investors are reallocating within the ETF ecosystem rather than reducing their overall Bitcoin exposure.
As of press time, Bitcoin’s price remained stable, with BTC hovering around $108,600 and experiencing intraday fluctuations of 5% after hitting $113,000 a day prior. The relative calm that followed the weekend decline suggests ETF inflows are being accepted without disrupting spot-market liquidity.
Open interest on CME futures and funding rates across key perpetual exchanges showed little change, indicating minimal leveraged trading activity. This pattern of net inflows without a corresponding price surge often signifies a phase of quiet institutional accumulation.
Monday’s transactions demonstrated the significant influence IBIT and ARKB wield, as they combined accounted for nearly 80% of the day’s total. This serves as a reminder that these two funds continue to dictate the prevailing sentiment for ETFs. Meanwhile, GBTC’s ongoing outflows and its narrower yet still negative discount to NAV imply that this legacy vehicle is still struggling to achieve balance following its conversion from a trust to an ETF.
This recovery could signal a potential reset as we approach late October. With US yields easing and inflation expectations stabilizing, risk assets have begun to regain some momentum, and ETF allocators seem to be rebalancing rather than pulling out.
If inflows continue into mid-week, this movement could signify the bottom of the recent ETF-flow cycle, establishing a more solid foundation for Bitcoin’s next price movement within its $107,000-$113,000 range.
