Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) listed in the US have started October, a month historically known for its bullish trends, with their second-highest week of inflows recorded since inception, indicating a resurgence in investor confidence.
For the past week, spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs experienced $3.24 billion in net positive inflows, closely approaching their peak of $3.38 billion during the week ending November 22, 2024, according to data from SoSoValue.
This represents a significant recovery from the previous week’s outflows of $902 million. Analysts believe this shift is attributed to increasing anticipation of another US interest rate cut, which has positively impacted the outlook for risk assets.
The rising expectations regarding a US interest rate reduction have led to a “shift in sentiment,” rekindling strong investor interest in Bitcoin ETFs and “bringing four-week inflows to nearly $4 billion,” said Iliya Kalchev, a dispatch analyst with digital asset platform Nexo, to Cointelegraph. “If this trend continues, Q4 inflows could remove over 100,000 BTC from circulation—more than double the current issuance.”
“The acceleration of ETF absorption combined with a slowdown in long-term holder distribution is fortifying BTC near crucial technical support levels,” he further stated.
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The ongoing ETF inflows could provide substantial support for Bitcoin in October, historically marked as the second-best month for Bitcoin regarding average returns, often referred to as “Uptober” by crypto enthusiasts.
This week’s $3.2 billion injection saw Bitcoin’s price briefly surpass $123,996 on Friday, achieving a height not seen in over six weeks since August 14, as per TradingView data.
Bitcoin’s surge above $120,000 might lead to a “very rapid movement” over the $150,000 all-time high before 2025 concludes, Charles Edwards, the founder of Capriole Investments, mentioned in an interview with Cointelegraph at Token2049 in Singapore.
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Uptober raises analyst hopes of new Bitcoin highs
Bitcoin ETFs currently represent the “clearest sentiment barometer” within the cryptocurrency sector, hinting at a possible breakout for October, Kalchev remarked.
“Uptober shows definitive signs of an early-Q4 breakout in the crypto market, fueled by ETF inflows, seasonal robustness, and favorable macroeconomic conditions.”
Nevertheless, Bitcoin’s momentum is likely to hinge on several key forthcoming events, including a speech by US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes.
Moreover, investors are eagerly awaiting the delayed US jobs report, with its publication contingent on the duration of the current US government shutdown, marking the first occurrence of this kind since 2018.
In the meantime, market participants anticipate a strong month for Bitcoin, as October ranks as the second-best month historically for the cryptocurrency.
According to CoinGlass data, BTC’s average monthly returns for October are around 20%, 46% for November, and approximately 4% for December.
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