Aster (ASTER) has risen more than 12% in the last 24 hours, but this spike may not tell the complete story. Despite the recent gain, the ASTER price remains over 22% lower than it was a week ago. The market sentiment appears uncertain, and while today’s surge may enthuse traders, on-chain indicators reveal that confidence is rapidly diminishing.
All significant holder groups seem to be moving in a similar direction, and it’s not bullish.
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Whales, Smart Money, and Retail All Pull Back
On-chain metrics indicate that the confidence of Aster’s largest investors has significantly waned.
Whales owning over 10 million ASTER have unloaded nearly 20% of their holdings in the past week, selling about 8.05 million ASTER, valued at approximately $12.07 million based on the current ASTER price.
Smart money addresses — usually early and informed investors — have also reduced their holdings by around 5% (nearly 59,000 tokens), while overall exchange balances have increased by 12.32 million tokens in the past 24 hours.
This rise in exchange reserves often suggests more tokens are being prepared for sale, even from retail investors, which reinforces the bearish trend.
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Retail sentiment reflected in the technical chart also illustrates this weakness. The Money Flow Index (MFI) — an indicator that monitors buying and selling pressure based on price and volume — continues to produce lower lows, indicating that smaller traders are not buying the dip. Retail interest seems to be waning as prices decline.
Together, these changes create a rare agreement across all trading groups — with whales, smart money, and retail all decreasing their exposure.
ASTER Price Faces Bearish Setup — $1.59 Is Key
On the 4-hour chart, the ASTER price is situated within a descending triangle, a formation that frequently indicates weakening demand. The triangle’s support levels are approximately $1.30, $1.15, and $0.98, now acting as crucial support zones. A fall below these levels could lead to more significant corrections.
To alter this perspective, the token must close above $1.59, a critical resistance level that would negate the short-term bearish trend. A decisive break above this level could lead to movements towards $1.72 and even $2.02, reversing short-term momentum and challenging the collective bearish outlook observed across holder data.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) — which gauges price momentum — also reveals a hidden bearish divergence (marked by the red arrow), where the RSI rises as prices create lower highs. This pattern typically suggests waning strength and a potential continuation of the ASTER price downtrend unless buyers regain control.
At this juncture, ASTER finds itself at a critical point. Every significant trading group seems aligned in their selling approach — but if $1.59 is breached, that consensus might prove to be incorrect.
