ASTER’s recent listing on Binance has brought the token back into the limelight. Despite a brief dip below $2 after significant gains, activity from large holders and improving indicators imply that the narrative is just beginning.
Short-term data indicates a struggle between liquidity positioning and actual selling. If the bulls are correct, exiting ASTER now might not be wise, especially as the price remains just 17% below its recent all-time high.
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Mega Whales Accumulate
On-chain data reveals that ASTER’s largest holders are quietly increasing their positions.
The top 100 addresses, known as “mega whales,” now possess approximately 7.84 billion ASTER, reflecting a 1.76% rise within 24 hours. This equates to around 134 million ASTER, valued at roughly $264 million at current prices.
Similarly, public-figure wallets have increased their holdings by 5.34%, adding about 236,000 ASTER (nearly $465,000).
Conversely, smart-money wallets have reduced their exposure by nearly 70%, while whales have trimmed their holdings by 9.97%, selling about 7.5 million ASTER (around $15 million).
Exchange balances surged 59.6% to 625 million ASTER, which may appear to indicate heavy selling; however, this could be misleading. With Binance’s listing, part of this increase might stem from liquidity repositioning.
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Supporting this, the Money Flow Index (MFI), which gauges buying and selling pressure based on price and volume, is trending upward.
If these inflows were genuinely sell-driven, the MFI would have decreased. Instead, it’s climbing toward 65, indicating that investment is still flowing into ASTER.
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The Bull-Bear Power (BBP) indicator supports this. BBP compares buying and selling momentum; when it shows green, bulls dominate. Since October 5, BBP bars have turned positive, indicating renewed strength.
These two indicators together suggest that the perceived “selling pressure” might merely be a liquidity illusion, rather than a sign of trend reversal.
Hidden Bullish Divergence Keeps ASTER Price Uptrend Intact
The 12-hour chart shows ASTER operating within an ascending triangle, with the ascending trendline acting as support—a formation typically favorable for buyers.
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From September 30 to October 5, the Relative Strength Index (RSI)—tracking market momentum—formed a lower low, while prices recorded a higher low. This constitutes a hidden bullish divergence, a pattern often confirming the continuation of an uptrend due to diminishing selling pressure.
Key resistance levels are at $2.04, $2.27, and $2.43 (ASTER’s all-time high). A 12-hour candle closing above $2.27 would confirm breakout strength and might pave the way for a new high beyond $2.43.
However, if the ASTER price descends below $1.77 and then $1.66, breaking the triangle on the downside, the bullish scenario would be invalidated.
As long as RSI remains above 50 and BBP stays positive, bulls maintain an advantage. Currently, ASTER’s price action conveys a straightforward message: the major holders are still in play—and so should the market’s focus.
