According to Mike Rychko, a researcher at Azuro, a prediction market infrastructure provider, prediction markets are entering the mainstream, with data supporting this claim.
In a Thursday X post, Rychko suggested that prediction markets are moving beyond the crypto space, with accessibility likely driving their success as the first decentralized finance (DeFi) product to achieve mass adoption.
“Most people will never open a derivatives exchange,” Rychko stated. “But ‘87% chance Mamdani wins’ — that’s a language everyone understands.”
He emphasized that “humans are inherently lazy” and desire a “clean, digestible signal,” which prediction markets provide by simplifying complex forecasts into straightforward data points.
“This simplicity is exactly why prediction markets will achieve mass adoption faster than many DeFi projects have.”
Earlier this month, Polymarket, a crypto-powered prediction market, received a $2 billion investment from Intercontinental Exchange, the parent company of NYSE, at a valuation of $9 billion.
Reports from early September indicated that Polymarket is targeting a US launch that might value it at up to $10 billion, particularly after appointing the son of the US President to its board.
Founded in 2020, Polymarket enables users to bet using stablecoins on real-world events, such as elections and sports outcomes. Its popularity surged during the 2024 US presidential election, achieving record activity and trading volumes.
Prediction markets gain mainstream attention
Rychko pointed out that prediction markets have recently achieved unprecedented mainstream visibility. The Kalshi platform, a competitor, showcased a New York City screen displaying a live feed dedicated to the mayoral election, attracting significant attention with a video garnering almost 13 million views on X alone.
Rychko described the display as “a public signal” and “a real-time reflection of collective belief.” He compared prediction tickers to stock tickers from the financial era of the 1980s, stating they are now defining the informational economy of the 2020s.
Kalshi operates as a regulated prediction market platform in the US under the supervision of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), making it the first federally regulated exchange for event contracts. The platform was recently featured in an episode of South Park, addressing US President Donald Trump.
Related: NYSE parent invests $2B in Polymarket at $9B valuation
Growth in prediction markets
Kalshi is not a crypto-focused platform, but it has emerged in a market segment largely energized by a crypto initiative.
Polymarket gained notoriety during the late 2024 US presidential elections, capturing considerable attention and investment. At the start of 2025, the service recorded its highest daily active wallets, surpassing 72,600 on Jan. 19, as shown by Dune data.
The platform reached its peak transaction volume on Dec. 27, 2024, with nearly 590,000 transactions in one day. Although it hasn’t matched those highs since, it continues to see strong usage. This month, it handled over $1 billion in trading volume, bringing its cumulative volume past $15.7 billion, according to Dune.
Related: Nobel Peace Prize bets on Polymarket under scrutiny: Report
This trend is clearly seen in the total value locked on Polymarket. According to DefiLlama, the protocol now manages over $194 million — down 62% from the nearly $512 million during peak US Presidential election betting, yet up 2,325% from the $8 million it had exactly one year ago.
Rychko stated that this consistent activity highlights the attractiveness of prediction markets as DeFi’s most relatable product, combining cultural relevance with real-world financial participation.
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