The annual Bitcoin (BTC) price candle appears poised to close in the negative, concluding 2025 lower than it began, unless BTC manages to increase by 6.24% above its yearly opening of approximately $93,374.
“Only 3 days remain for Bitcoin to rebound and end the year positively. If it fails, this will mark the first post-halving year with a red close. A 6.24% rise is necessary to turn this candle green,” Puckrin stated.
Bitcoin reached a record high exceeding $125,000 in October, just days before a significant market downturn that affected Bitcoin’s momentum and lowered cryptocurrency prices across the spectrum.
The BTC price has dropped around 30% since its all-time high, forming a local low near $80,000 in November, leading analysts to ponder if Bitcoin’s bullish trend has ended and if a new bear market has commenced.
Market analysts remain divided on the likelihood of a recovery versus the possibility of further declines extending into 2026, often focusing on macroeconomic variables and liquidity conditions influencing Bitcoin’s valuation.
Related: Bitcoin price, onchain flows and global macro: Here’s what changed in 2025
All eyes are on the US Federal Reserve and the potential for continued rate cuts
Since November, Bitcoin has been trading significantly below its 365-day moving average, a vital support threshold, breaking the structural uptrend established in 2023.
Reduced interest rates can serve as positive price drivers for risk-on assets, including cryptocurrencies, which typically experience rallies with new liquidity sources.
The Federal Reserve implemented three cuts of 25 basis points (BPS) in 2025; however, Chairman Jerome Powell provided ambiguous guidance during the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) December session.
“There is no risk-free approach to policy,” Powell remarked, raising skepticism about a potential rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting in January.
Only 18.8% of investors anticipate an interest rate cut in January, according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Group’s FedWatch tool.
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