Bitcoin is at a critical juncture after failing to surpass the closely monitored $125,000 all-time high. The rejection at this point prompted a steep pullback, with bulls now focusing on key demand zones between $110,000 and $112,000. This area is viewed as a crucial threshold that could dictate whether BTC resumes its upward path or undergoes further consolidation.
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Market analysts are divided in their opinions. Some emphasize the strength of buyers who are absorbing selling pressure and maintaining higher lows. Conversely, others caution that a failure to regain momentum soon could empower bears and lead to an accelerated correction.
Top analyst Axel Adler has expressed wariness, highlighting the emergence of significant sellers on centralized exchanges in recent sessions. Adler notes that it is concerning that these sellers may not employ effective execution strategies like TWAP (Time-Weighted Average Price), which could exacerbate volatility and increase pressure on short-term price movements.
Despite these warning signs, overall CEX Netflow remains positive, indicating that buyers are still in charge for the time being. However, Adler cautions that the balance is changing: if sellers continue to grow in strength, buyers might soon be outnumbered, which could push Bitcoin into a more significant downturn.
Bitcoin Bulls Face A Test As Focus Shifts To Ethereum
According to Axel Adler, this stage in Bitcoin’s cycle underscores the evolving dynamics of institutional and corporate interest. He suggests that “now would be the ideal time for Saylor & Co. to amplify their buying,” referring to Michael Saylor and other notable corporate investors who have historically backed Bitcoin at critical levels. However, Adler also points out that corporate focus has noticeably shifted toward Ethereum, where accumulation and leveraging activities have been front and center.
This Ethereum surge, driven by whale accumulation and institutional investments, has contributed to Bitcoin’s current stagnation. While ETH is soaring toward new highs and attracting market liquidity, BTC has been consolidating, unable to replicate the momentum seen earlier this year. For many analysts, this is not necessarily a bearish sign—it signals a capital rotation within the crypto market.
Technically, Bitcoin is testing its previous ATH zone as support—a vital level that bulls must defend. Sustaining this range could validate the current consolidation as healthy before another ascent. However, a failure at this juncture could lead to more significant corrections, particularly if capital keeps flowing into ETH at the current rate.
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Testing Support At A Pivotal Level
The daily Bitcoin chart indicates price pressures following a failure to maintain momentum above $123K, resulting in a sharp downturn. BTC is currently priced near $111,829, just above the 100-day moving average at $111,567, which is becoming critical short-term support. The 50-day moving average at $116,544 has turned into resistance after last week’s decline, revealing a weakening bullish structure.
This zone around $111K–$112K is critical. A confirmed close below this level would pave the way for more significant downside, potentially targeting the 200-day moving average near $100,866, which aligns with a major psychological level at $100K. To regain momentum, bulls need to reclaim the $115K–$116K range and attempt another push toward the $123K ATH.
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Price trends indicate that sellers have recently taken control, as shown by consecutive lower highs and a failure to hold demand above $115K. Nonetheless, as long as BTC remains above the 100-day MA, the overall uptrend is still intact, suggesting that this situation could evolve into a consolidation phase rather than a full reversal.
Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
