Haseeb Qureshi, a managing partner at Dragonfly, a venture firm focused on crypto, believes that 2026 will be a year where existing trends in cryptocurrency become more defined rather than reset, despite the possibility of significant market fluctuations.
In a Dec. 29 post on X, Qureshi provided an extensive forecast indicating a broader investor reevaluation following several turbulent cycles, emphasizing durability, distribution, and practical application over rapid innovation.
Markets and blockchains
Qureshi projects that bitcoin will conclude 2026 above $150,000, while capturing a smaller percentage of the overall crypto market. He interprets this as an indication that other activities can flourish without undermining bitcoin’s pivotal role as the core asset in the sector.
He expressed skepticism regarding newer, fintech-oriented blockchains, asserting that the recent excitement is not likely to lead to sustained use. He believes important metrics such as wallet activity, stablecoin transactions, and the adoption of tokenized assets will not meet expectations.
Instead, Qureshi anticipates developer efforts to be largely focused on infrastructure that values neutrality and composability. He foresees Ethereum and Solana continuing to excel compared to expectations, even as newer networks vie for attention.
He also predicts increased corporate engagement, especially in payments and financial services. Qureshi expects at least one major tech company to either launch or acquire a crypto wallet, while more Fortune 100 companies implement blockchain systems associated with banking and fintech operations. He pointed out Avalanche and various rollup frameworks as beneficiaries of this trend.
Market structure and DeFi
In the realm of decentralized finance, Qureshi anticipates the market structure will shift towards consolidation rather than fragmentation. He envisions a small number of leading venues dominating on-chain perpetual futures trading, with lesser platforms contending for the diminishing remainder.
He also sees product innovation altering trading practices, particularly via derivative formats and liquidity models that prioritize negotiated execution instead of open order books. Concurrently, he cautioned that increased complexity could introduce reputational risks, foreseeing at least one insider trading scandal related to DeFi garnering mainstream attention.
Payments and stablecoins
Qureshi feels most strongly about payments infrastructure. He projects a significant expansion of stablecoin supply in 2026, remaining predominantly dollar-based, even as individual issuers compete for market share.
Focusing on distribution rather than mere issuance, he suggested that new payment channels will facilitate adoption far more rapidly than in prior cycles. He believes these new pathways will be vital for integrating stablecoins into everyday transactions, especially in developing markets.
Regulation and politics
In terms of policy, Qureshi believes U.S. legislators will push forward a crypto market structure bill in 2026 after lengthy negotiations. While he foresees progress as likely, he warned that the final results may leave some industry segments feeling dissatisfied.
He also forecasts increased political scrutiny toward crypto initiatives related to U.S. politics, cautioning that congressional inquiries could unearth dubious dealings and result in reputational damage for involved parties.
Prediction markets, AI and security
Qureshi expects a rapid expansion of prediction markets as societal acceptance grows, even amidst ongoing legal ambiguities. He foresees that a select few consumer-oriented platforms will attract significant attention, whereas most imitation efforts will struggle to gain traction.
Regarding artificial intelligence (AI), Qureshi asserted that crypto’s short-term advancements will predominantly occur in developer tools and security, rather than in consumer automation. He predicts smaller teams will release increasingly sophisticated products using AI-driven processes, while cybersecurity will advance through automated monitoring, even as attack attempts continue.
Qureshi revealed that he invests in many of the assets discussed in the post.
