As Bitcoin (BTC) continues to underperform compared to gold and major equity indices, investors are increasingly pondering whether this cycle is playing out differently than anticipated. In a recent interview with analyst Benjamin Cowen, we explore the reasons behind Bitcoin’s lagging performance relative to traditional markets and why the current situation may resemble that of 2019.
Cowen highlights that while stocks and gold are positively reacting to expectations regarding future monetary easing, Bitcoin seems more influenced by actual liquidity conditions than just optimism.
This distinction, he elaborates, helps explain why BTC has faced challenges in gaining momentum, even as broader markets trend upwards. According to Cowen, Bitcoin typically needs a clearer macroeconomic trigger to outperform, which may not yet be evident.
A significant theme of the discussion is sentiment. Unlike previous cycle peaks marked by widespread enthusiasm and retail speculation, this market has been characterized by a sense of apathy.
Cowen discusses why topping in a low-attention environment is unusual for Bitcoin, and how this difference could influence its trajectory over the next few years.
The conversation also addresses the debate surrounding the four-year cycle. While many analysts argue that Bitcoin’s historical cycle framework is losing relevance, Cowen provides data indicating that broader market cycles, not just crypto-specific trends, continue to play a crucial role.
He outlines how macroeconomic challenges, including labor market trends and tight financial conditions, may keep pressure on Bitcoin through 2026, even with potential short-term rallies.
Instead of concentrating on specific price targets, the interview emphasizes the importance of process over prediction; how investors should approach cycles, risk, and patience in a context where easy liquidity is not assured. Cowen also briefly discusses the implications for altcoins and why expectations for swift rotations may be misguided.
Check out the full interview on the Cointelegraph YouTube channel to hear Cowen’s complete reasoning, charts, and the broader macro context informing his outlook.
