Recent interviews indicate that billionaire investor Ray Dalio has become increasingly cautious about Bitcoin’s suitability as official reserves, while still acknowledging its limited supply.
Related Reading
Dalio noted that Bitcoin possesses money-like characteristics due to its scarcity, yet emphasized who should hold it on official balance sheets.
He expressed concerns that the public nature of transaction records and the risk of external interference complicate the treatment of Bitcoin for reserve managers compared to gold.
Dalio Highlights Traceability Issues
Dalio cautioned that Bitcoin’s open ledger introduces vulnerabilities for large custodial entities. He stated that public transactions are traceable and can potentially be interrupted, raising concerns for institutions tasked with safeguarding national wealth.
NEW: RAY DALIO SAYS THAT BITCOIN IS “UNLIKELY TO BE HELD SIGNIFICANTLY BY CENTRAL BANKS” – TRANSACTIONS ARE TOO TRANSPARENT, THE GOVERNMENT CAN INTERFERE WITH THEM
— DEGEN NEWS (@DegenerateNews) December 20, 2025
He contrasted this with gold, which he believes is more difficult for authorities to regulate once it exits the formal financial system.
Dalio also raised concerns about security, including the risks that Bitcoin could be hacked or manipulated, affecting its long-term viability as a store of value.
Stablecoins Viewed As Transactional Instruments
Reports suggest that Dalio has a low assessment of stablecoins as long-term investments. He pointed out that since stablecoins are linked to fiat currencies and typically offer no interest, they serve better for quick transfers than for wealth preservation.
He admitted to having a personal stake in Bitcoin—“a little bit”—but considers gold a superior choice for shielding assets from government actions.
Last year, Dalio advised investors to prioritize scarce resources like gold and Bitcoin over debt instruments, especially as major economies grapple with rising debt levels.
Institutional Demand and Market Trends
The cryptocurrency markets are increasingly converging with mainstream finance, marked by the emergence of spot Bitcoin ETFs and enhanced custodial services, leading to shifts in market structure.
BTC will hit $250k by year-end 2027. 2026 is too chaotic to predict, though Bitcoin making new all-time highs in 2026 is still possible. Options markets are currently pricing about equal odds of $70k or $130k for month-end June 2026, and equal odds of $50k or $250k by year-end…
— Alex Thorn (@intangiblecoins) December 21, 2025
According to Galaxy Research, the entangled macro and market risks make Bitcoin particularly challenging to predict for 2026. Their analysis suggests options pricing and volatility trends indicate Bitcoin behaving more like a macro asset rather than merely a high-growth speculative investment.
Still, the research group maintains a long-term bullish outlook, forecasting Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by the end of 2027.
Related Reading
Macro Indicators and Price Projections
The mixed perspectives illustrate a divide between policy appropriateness and price potential. Dalio is focused on whether sovereign nations will accept the asset as part of a reserve ledger, while Galaxy’s analysis pertains to how market dynamics may value Bitcoin amid evolving macroeconomic conditions.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
