Grayscale analysts are forecasting a resurgence in the crypto market, predicting that demand will surge sufficiently to propel Bitcoin to a new all-time high in the first half of 2026.
The asset manager shared this prediction in a 2026 outlook report published on Monday, which also examined ten key investment themes for the year.
Regarding Bitcoin (BTC), Grayscale stated that its price is expected to soar in H1 2026, driven by higher macro demand for alternative value stores and enhanced regulatory clarity in the US.
The firm noted that this surge will likely coincide with the conclusion of the so-called Bitcoin four-year cycle:
“We anticipate rising valuations in 2026 and the end of the so-called ‘four-year cycle,’ a theory suggesting that crypto market trends follow a four-year recurring pattern. We believe Bitcoin’s price will reach a new all-time high in the first half of the year.”
On the macroeconomic front, the asset manager argued that fiat currencies are experiencing increasing debasement risks due to “growing public sector debt and its potential long-term implications for inflation.”
“As the risk of fiat currency debasement rises, we believe that portfolio demand for Bitcoin and Ether will likely continue to increase,” the company stated.
Regulation is paving the way for more growth
On the regulatory landscape, Grayscale pointed out a significant shift in the US over recent years.
The firm highlighted several cases dismissed against crypto companies, the approval of spot-Bitcoin ETFs that could pave the way for new products, and the enactment of the GENIUS Act.
“In 2024, Bitcoin and Ether spot ETPs entered the market. In 2025, Congress passed the GENIUS Act on stablecoins, and regulators altered their approach toward crypto, collaborating with the industry to offer clear guidance while prioritizing consumer protection and financial stability,” Grayscale added:
“In 2026, we expect Congress to pass bipartisan legislation on crypto market structure, solidifying blockchain-based finance in U.S. capital markets and encouraging ongoing institutional investment.”
Related: SEC ‘eased up on’ 60% of crypto enforcement cases under Trump: Report
Grayscale tips top 10 themes of 2026
Grayscale’s report also highlighted its view on the top ten investing themes for 2026, “showcasing the multitude of use cases emerging from public blockchain technology.”
The themes encompass significant areas such as: growth in the stablecoin market due to the GENIUS Act, the pivotal moment for asset tokenization, and substantial DeFi advancement led by lending markets, with investors increasingly seeking staking opportunities “by default.”
“In 2026, we anticipate tangible outcomes: stablecoins integrated into cross-border payment services, utilized as collateral on derivatives exchanges, appearing on corporate balance sheets, and serving as alternatives to credit cards in online consumer payments,” Grayscale expressed.
Meanwhile, Grayscale identified two narratives unlikely to impact the crypto market next year: Quantum computing and digital asset treasuries (DATs).
“While we expect research and preparedness to advance on post-quantum cryptography, this issue is not likely to influence valuations in the upcoming year,” Grayscale stated, adding: “Despite their media spotlight, we believe DATs won’t be significant influencers for digital asset markets in 2026.
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