Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, asserts that while Bitcoin’s familiar four-year cycle persists, its driving forces have evolved. On The Wolf Of All Streets Podcast, he explained that the timing of halvings is no longer the primary influence. Instead, factors like election cycles, central bank actions, and money flow have become more significant.
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Shift From Halving To Politics And Liquidity
Thielen pointed out that Bitcoin’s key peaks in 2013, 2017, and 2021 occurred in the fourth quarter, suggesting these highs align more closely with election cycles and political instability than with halving schedules.
He noted that there’s increasing market concern regarding whether the current president’s party will maintain Congressional control. This situation can significantly influence policy and investor decisions, with Thielen referencing US President Donald Trump in the context of current political dynamics. The takeaway is clear: politics shape expectations, and those expectations drive price changes.
The four-year cycle still exists, but it’s guided by midterm elections, not the halving.@markus10x pic.twitter.com/5td8bLgb20
— The Wolf Of All Streets (@scottmelker) December 13, 2025
Liquidity And Institutional Caution
The recent Federal Reserve rate cut did not trigger the typical broad rally seen in risk assets. Institutional investors, now playing a more substantial role in the crypto markets, are adopting a more cautious approach given the mixed signals from policies and tighter liquidity conditions.
Thielen mentioned that the inflow of capital into Bitcoin has diminished compared to last year, reducing some of the buying momentum that previously drove up prices. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, echoed this sentiment in October, stating that global liquidity—not merely a four-year cycle—has always influenced the primary movements in cryptocurrency. He suggested that while halvings may coincide with rallies, this alignment is often coincidental.
Bitcoin fell below $90,000 during thin trading on Sunday, indicating weak demand when volumes are low. While Ether demonstrated relative strength, major altcoins lagged behind. Traders are positioning themselves ahead of a busy week of US economic data and central bank announcements, placing a premium on signals that impact liquidity and risk appetite. Since institutional trading desks are closely monitoring macroeconomic reports, momentum is likely to hinge more on capital flows than on specific calendar dates.
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What This Means For Investors
The most straightforward implication is clear. The four-year cycle can help frame investor expectations, but it shouldn’t be regarded as a fixed rule. Halvings influence supply and the economics for miners, playing a significant role for some market participants; however, in a market increasingly shaped by large funds and ETFs, the primary drivers remain cash liquidity and credit conditions.
When liquidity is ample, prices can surge. Conversely, when it tightens, rallies may falter. This fundamental principle resonates with both Thielen’s and Hayes’s perspectives.
Currently, policy and liquidity have taken center stage in Bitcoin’s cycles. Reports suggest a shift from a purely mechanical schedule to one that is increasingly shaped by macroeconomic conditions and political timelines. Market players seem to be reacting to economic data and central bank cues alongside the established block reward schedule.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
