Bitcoin (BTC) may be holding steady above $90,000; however, data suggests that its price is still signaling significant risk. CryptoQuant’s multi-metric risk-off oscillator remains close to the “High-Risk” zone, a level that has historically foreshadowed corrections and reduced the likelihood of a sustained bullish trend.
Key takeaways:
Bitcoin’s risk-off signal is in the “High-Risk” region, which has historically indicated a bearish period.
BTC’s Profit–Loss sentiment has reached a rare -3 extreme, indicating a structural correction.
With a -32% drawdown, BTC sits between a correction and capitulation zone, potentially prolonging the decline from $90,000 to $80,000.
Bitcoin is structurally weak near $90,000
CryptoQuant’s Risk-Off model employs six metrics — downside volatility, upside volatility, exchange inflows, funding rates, futures open interest, and market cap behavior — to assess market fragility. The oscillator nearing 60 or the High-Risk zone signifies that correction risk is elevated.
Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr also observed that the profit/loss score has fallen to -3, indicating an extreme concentration of unprofitable UTXOs. Historically, this level has aligned with bearish climates and extended cooling phases. The current -32% drawdown surpasses typical cycle pullbacks (-20–25%) but stays above capitulation thresholds (-50% to -70%), placing Bitcoin in a vulnerable “intermediate zone.”
Adler noted that unless macroeconomic conditions and on-chain profitability improve, the likelihood of continued downside remains high, even with the price stabilizing near $90,000.
At this moment, on-chain data from Glassnode provided a slight glimmer of hope. The analytics platform reported that Bitcoin’s recent drawdown triggered the largest spike in realized losses since the FTX collapse in 2022, predominantly driven by short-term holders (STHs).
However, long-term holder (LTH) losses remain relatively muted, a dynamic that has historically indicated core holder resilience and has occasionally softened deeper capitulation in past cycles.
Related: Bitcoin price action, investor sentiment point to bullish December
$100,000 Bitcoin is a battle between the momentum and the trend
One CryptoQuant analyst described Bitcoin’s ascent to $100,000 as a “psychological turning point.” While a breakout could trigger renewed momentum, potentially aided by a Federal Reserve interest rate cut on Dec. 10, major round numbers often lead to volatility and failed attempts.
The growth rate difference (Market Cap vs. Realized Cap) stood at -0.00095, suggesting that the market cap is declining faster than the realized cap. With BTC currently priced at $91,000, the analyst expressed concerns over structural weakness more than trend expansion.
Bitcoin futures trader, Byzantine General, also identified unstable price action for BTC, stating,
“$BTC is facing challenges at this critical resistance level. If it breaks through, it could quickly surge past 100,000, but if it fails, we might find ourselves stuck in the 92,000-82,000 range for some time.”
Related: Bitcoin accumulation trends strengthen as realized losses near $5.8B
This article does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading decision carries risk, and readers are encouraged to conduct their own research before making decisions.
This article does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading decision carries risk, and readers are encouraged to conduct their own research when making decisions. While we strive for accuracy and timeliness, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the completeness or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be responsible for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
