This week, Ether (ETH) has surpassed Bitcoin (BTC) in both price dynamics and exchange-traded fund (ETFs) flows, supporting the narrative of capital rotation. Over the last two weeks, the spot ETH ETFs recorded $360 million in net inflows compared to BTC’s $120 million, indicating a temporary shift in investor preferences.
Key takeaways:
Spot ETH ETFs have secured three times the inflows of BTC, enhancing their relative momentum.
ETH’s high-time-frame price movements outperform Bitcoin, hinting that Ether may have reached a bottom.
Retail Increased Ether Holdings, But a Pullback May Be Imminent
Information from CryptoQuant indicated that the average order size in the spot market displayed a notable behavioral change in Ether trading. When ETH dropped below $2,700 on Nov. 21, retail investors entered the market aggressively, leading to a quick rebound driven by demand. This pattern mirrors previous accumulation phases, particularly from March to May, indicating that early retail participation often precedes a more extensive correction.
Historically, bounces driven by retail action at local lows often lead to one final liquidity check, shaking out late buyers before a stronger rally develops. This suggests that ETH might still allow for a controlled pullback to reset positions and pave the way for a more sustainable upward trajectory.
Currently, Ether’s net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) is around 0.22, signifying a balanced market. This suggests investors are enjoying moderate profits without succumbing to euphoria.
Crucially, NUPL hasn’t dipped into the negative range, indicating that holders maintain strong positions, thereby reducing the chances of increased selling pressure. As long as NUPL stays above 0.20, sentiment continues to support a rebound when catalysts align.
Related: Bitcoin’s strongest trading day since May cues possible rally to $107K
ETH Outshines Bitcoin, At Least for Now
From a technical perspective, Ether has demonstrated a clearer high-time-frame (HTF) setup compared to Bitcoin. Recently, ETH confirmed a break of structure (BOS) by reaching a 20-day high above $3,200, indicating that buyers have successfully flipped previous resistance and initiated a trend shift.
Nevertheless, BTC requires a decisive daily close above $96,000 to confirm its own breakout, positioning ETH with a structural advantage.
The daily chart for the ETH/BTC pair further reinforces this advantage. The pair recently broke out from a 30-day consolidation phase, a range where supply consistently undermined upward movements.
This breakout was validated by a successful retest of the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), a crucial trend indicator that has remained effective since July. Historically, when ETH/BTC reclaims the 200-day SMA and breaks a multi-week range, it signals periods of sustained outperformance for ETH.
If BTC consolidates above $94,000 and manages a close above $96,000, it would relieve some overhead pressure for altcoins. In this scenario, ETH is likely to extend its newly gained uptrend by retesting the $3,650 swing high, and if momentum builds, it could target the next expansion level at $3,900, representing an additional 20% from current prices where external liquidity clusters are positioned.
Related: Bitcoin rejects at key $93.5K as Fed rate-cut bets meet ‘strong’ bear case
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
This article does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trading moves come with risk, and we encourage readers to conduct their own research when making decisions. While we endeavor to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the completeness or reliability of any information presented. This article may include forward-looking statements subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be held liable for any losses or damages resulting from reliance on this information.
