Ether (ETH) has surpassed Bitcoin (BTC) in price movement and exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows this week, strengthening the narrative of capital shifting. In the past fortnight, the spot ETH ETFs saw $360 million in net inflows compared to BTC’s $120 million, indicating a temporary shift in investor preferences.
Key takeaways:
Spot ETH ETFs have gathered thrice the inflows than BTC, reinforcing their relative strength.
ETH’s long-term price action surpasses that of Bitcoin, indicating a potential bottom for Ether.
Retail accumulates Ether, but one more pullback could occur
According to data from CryptoQuant, the average spot order size metric highlighted a noticeable behavioral change in Ether markets. When ETH fell below $2,700 on Nov. 21, retail investors rushed in, sparking a strong demand-driven recovery. This pattern reflects previous accumulation phases, notably during March–May, when early retail involvement preceded a more substantial correction.
Historically, retail-induced recoveries at local lows often precede a final liquidity check, eliminating late buyers before a stronger rally takes off. This dynamic suggests that ETH may still experience a controlled pullback to recalibrate positioning for a more sustained upward trend.
Currently, Ether’s net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) is around 0.22, indicating a balanced market, suggesting that investors remain moderately profitable without drifting into euphoria.
Crucially, NUPL has stayed above zero, which shows that holders are structurally strong, reducing the chances of further selling pressure. As long as NUPL is above 0.20, market sentiment supports a rebound as catalysts align.
Related: Bitcoin’s strongest trading day since May cues possible rally to $107K
ETH trumps Bitcoin, for now
From a technical view, Ether has showcased a clearer high-time-frame (HTF) setup compared to Bitcoin. ETH has recently confirmed a break of structure (BOS) by pushing above $3,200, marking a 20-day high, demonstrating that buyers have overcome previous resistance and initiated a trend change.
Nonetheless, BTC still requires a conclusive daily close above $96,000 to validate its own breakout, leaving ETH in a structurally advantageous position.
The ETH/BTC daily chart further reinforced this advantage. The pair broke above a 30-day consolidation zone, a previous range where supply consistently limited upside potential.
This breakout was confirmed by a successful retest of the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), a crucial trend baseline since July. Historically, when ETH/BTC reclaims the 200-day SMA and breaks through a multi-week range, it often coincides with periods of sustained ETH outperformance.
If BTC stabilizes above $94,000 and closes above $96,000, it would alleviate some overhead pressure for altcoins. In this scenario, ETH stands ready to extend its newly established uptrend by retesting the $3,650 swing high, and potentially targeting the next level of expansion at $3,900, representing another 20% growth from current prices, where external liquidity clusters are currently located.
Related: Bitcoin rejects at key $93.5K as Fed rate-cut bets meet ‘strong’ bear case
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
