This week, Binance founder Changpeng “CZ” Zhao introduced a new BNB Chain prediction market through a post on X, showcasing predict.fun. This platform, developed by a former Binance employee, enables users to earn yield on their funds while maintaining open positions.
The new market allows users to place bets while generating passive income on idle funds.
This configuration addresses a significant inefficiency in the industry, as traders often have to lock up capital without any earnings while awaiting event conclusions.
Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi are also integrating staking rewards, treasury incentives, or points systems into their forecasting to engage users and mitigate the opportunity cost associated with long-duration markets.
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Currently, Predict.fun features two markets with a total volume of about $300,000.
The platform claims to have amassed over 12,000 users, with nearly 300,000 bets placed.
Despite this, there is a significant gap in scale. Polymarket has exceeded $3 billion in overall trading volume, far surpassing Kalshi’s approximately $587 million. Smaller platforms like Limitless have registered around $10.9 million, as per Polymarket Analytics.
This concentration reflects liquidity dynamics favoring established venues. New players often experience activity surges during reward campaigns but struggle to retain users once those incentives diminish.
However, Predict.fun benefits from BNB Chain’s support, which boasts the highest number of active wallets and has witnessed nearly a doubling of active addresses over the past year, according to on-chain analytics. Token Terminal reports a market share of 25%.
While these developments seem promising, BNB Chain faces a notable deficit in stablecoin issuance, restricting the available liquidity for Predict.fun.
Currently, the pressing question is whether Predict.fun can keep pace with smaller rivals like Limitless and generate consistent volume. Although the vast user base of BNB Chain could potentially assist in this endeavor, success is not guaranteed in a landscape where liquidity advantages can quickly magnify.
