Main points:
Bitcoin reached its highest weekly close at $123,400.
Onchain metrics and futures data indicate sustained bullish sentiment above $122,000.
Short-term forecasts are divided between a momentum push upwards or a return to mean dip.
Bitcoin (BTC) celebrated its highest weekly close ever at $123,500 on Sunday, marking its transition into a new phase of price discovery. As it stabilized near its all-time high (ATH) of $125,800, three pivotal onchain and derivative metrics underscored the robustness and sustainability of the bullish trend.
Bitcoin’s structural momentum led by bullish sentiment around $123,000
Bitcoin’s structural momentum is distinctly bullish. Researcher Axel Adler Jr. highlighted that BTC’s price remains pressed against the upper limit of the 21-day “Donchian” channel ($125,200). Meanwhile, the structural shift composite is steady at +0.73, signaling buyer dominance and controlled pullbacks. The ongoing contest around the $125,000 ATH could determine whether the market moves higher or pauses for a breather.
Futures flow index indicates bullish pressure
The Bitcoin futures flow index recorded at 96%, with the price significantly above its 30-day fair value of $117,500, signals a classic “bullish mode.” Typically, this setup is followed by a brief cooling or digestion phase as exuberant futures activity levels out before continuing.
Furthermore, the Profit/Loss Block score maintained a maximum reading of +3, indicating that a majority of UTXOs are in profit, fostering a strong risk appetite and consistent dip-buying behavior.
The short-term holder MVRV ratio is nearing its +1σ band near $133,000, implying potential resistance as profit-taking pressure mounts. To avoid divergence and trend fatigue, it will be essential to keep P/L momentum above the 90th percentile.
Related: BTC October breakout odds appear low: 5 crucial insights on Bitcoin this week
Short-term forecasts: A momentum push or mean reversion for BTC?
Bitcoin’s short-term trends revealed two distinct continuation scenarios following its record weekly close above $123,000.
The first scenario supported a momentum-based breakout, suggesting that “high prices remain higher.” Here, Bitcoin might consolidate in a tight range between $122,000 and $124,000, creating a high-timeframe base as volatility decreases.
This behavior generally precedes a gradual trend expansion, enabling the market to extend its price discovery phase through a steady climb to new heights. Continued strong positioning would affirm this scenario as a bullish continuation rather than a distribution.
Conversely, a mean reversion scenario remains possible. This would involve a corrective retest toward key moving averages on the 4-hour chart, with the 50-, 100-, and 200-period exponential moving averages (EMAs) converging within a liquidity pocket between $118,500 and $120,000.
A pullback into this area would reset short-term leverage, rebuild demand, and preserve structural integrity as long as $118,000 is sustained as higher support.
Overall, the current market dynamics suggest consolidation within a framework of bullish strength. Whether through steady compression or a brief liquidity sweep, the overarching trend bias remains upward unless momentum breaks below the mid-$118,000 zone.
Related: Bitcoin surpasses top memecoins in 2025: Will DOGE, TRUMP rebound in Q4?
This article does not comprise investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading decision carries risk, and readers should perform their own research when making a decision.
