US-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) kicked off the historically bullish month of October with their second-highest weekly inflows since launching, indicating renewed investor confidence.
Spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs saw cumulative net positive inflows of $3.24 billion over the past week, almost reaching their record of $3.38 billion during the week ending Nov. 22, 2024, as reported by SoSoValue.
This figure represents a significant recovery from the previous week’s outflows of $902 million. Analysts credit this rebound to increasing expectations of another US interest rate cut, which has enhanced sentiment towards risk assets.
The anticipation of another US interest rate reduction instigated a “shift in sentiment,” sparking renewed demand for Bitcoin ETFs, bringing four-week inflows to nearly $4 billion, according to Iliya Kalchev, a dispatch analyst at digital asset platform Nexo, speaking to Cointelegraph. “At the current flow rates, Q4 could see over 100,000 BTC removed from circulation — more than double the new issuance.”
“ETF absorption is ramping up while distributions from long-term holders are easing, assisting BTC in establishing a more robust base,” he added, near key technical support levels.
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Ongoing ETF inflows could provide significant support for Bitcoin in October, historically noted as the second-best month for Bitcoin in terms of average returns, often dubbed “Uptober” by crypto investors.
This week’s $3.2 billion briefly lifted Bitcoin’s price above $123,996 on Friday, reaching a six-week high not seen since Aug. 14, according to TradingView data.
Bitcoin’s surge above $120,000 may lead to a “very quick move” exceeding the $150,000 all-time high by the close of 2025, Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, mentioned in an interview with Cointelegraph at Token2049 in Singapore.
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Uptober raises analysts’ hopes for new Bitcoin highs
Bitcoin ETFs are now seen as the “clearest sentiment barometer” for the crypto market, hinting at a possible breakout this October, Kalchev stated.
“Uptober is showing clear signs of an early-Q4 breakout in the crypto market, driven by ETF inflows, seasonal strength, and dovish macro conditions.”
However, Bitcoin’s momentum will hinge on several pivotal events next week, including US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech and the release of the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
Investors are also anticipating the delayed US jobs report, but its release will depend on the duration of the current US government shutdown, the first instance of such since 2018.
Meanwhile, expectations are high for Bitcoin’s momentum this month, as October is historically the second-best month for its performance.
BTC has averaged monthly returns of around 20% in October, 46% in November, and approximately 4% in December, according to CoinGlass data.
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