September was a tumultuous month for XRP (XRP) and the overall crypto market. Nevertheless, the altcoin increased by 3.66%, marking a significant turnaround from August’s 8.15% drop.
As October begins, seasonal trends appear bearish. Over the past 12 years, XRP has ended in the red during seven Octobers. However, multiple potential catalysts could disrupt that trend in 2025.
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Seasonality vs Catalysts: XRP Prepares for a Crucial October
Data from CryptoRank indicates that XRP’s average return in October is -4.58%, making it one of the weakest months for the altcoin, following February and June.
This year upheld the trend in February with XRP declining by 29.3%. However, the coin defied seasonality in June, gaining 2.95% and breaking a seven-year downward trend.
With ‘Uptober’ on the horizon, analysts believe there’s a possibility that XRP could once again break the trend and deliver positive returns. Central to this potential turnaround are upcoming decisions by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) regarding several spot XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) applications.
The SEC is set to decide on ETF applications from various asset managers between October 18 and 25. These applicants include Grayscale, 21Shares, Bitwise, Canary Capital, WisdomTree, CoinShares, and Franklin Templeton.
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These deadlines follow a flurry of applications, with numerous issuers seeking approval. If granted, this could lead to significant institutional inflows, potentially driving XRP’s price upwards. Additionally, the recent success of the REX-Osprey XRP ETF has sparked optimism regarding spot ETFs.
Apart from ETFs, progress within the XRP Ledger (XRPL) ecosystem is quickening adoption. In late September, Securitize integrated with XRPL to improve utility and accessibility.
Moreover, Ripple and Securitize introduced a smart contract allowing holders of BlackRock’s BUIDL and VanEck’s VBILL to instantly swap their shares for Ripple USD (RLUSD) on-chain, facilitating a stablecoin off-ramp and enhanced liquidity.
“Enabling RLUSD as an exchange option for tokenized funds is a natural next step as we continue to bridge traditional finance and crypto. RLUSD caters to institutional needs, providing regulatory clarity, stability, and genuine utility. As adoption increases, partnerships with trusted platforms like Securitize will be crucial for unlocking new liquidity and institutional-grade use cases,” stated Ripple’s SVP of Stablecoins, Jack McDonald, noted.
In the decentralized finance (DeFi) sector, Flare Network’s fXRP, a DeFi-compatible token pegged to XRP, launched on the mainnet. Impressively, its week-1 minting cap of 5 million FXRP was fully utilized ahead of schedule, indicating strong early demand and utility.
Similarly, Midas’ mXRP liquid staking token, created on XRPL’s EVM sidechain through Axelar, accumulated $26 million in total value locked (TVL) within just six days, showcasing untapped DeFi potential.
Thus, despite October’s historically weak trends for XRP, 2025 presents credible bullish catalysts: clustered SEC spot-ETF deadlines, increasing XRPL adoption, and early DeFi success.
If the SEC approves spot XRP ETFs, October could signify a critical transition from regulatory uncertainty to mainstream acceptance, potentially altering XRP’s trajectory. However, downside volatility could resurface if denials, delays, or macroeconomic tightening occur.
