Key takeaways:
XRP remained close to the $2.75 support level, facing a potential drop of 8–10% down to $2.50.
Onchain URPD data revealed a robust buyer cluster between $2.45 and $2.55.
Liquidity compression and upcoming ETF developments suggest a possible expansion phase.
XRP (XRP) is currently at a pivotal point, consolidating at the base of a descending triangle, a typically bearish formation. It is hovering around the $2.75 support, and ongoing selling pressure could push prices lower to the $2.65 to $2.45 range.
Such a decline would represent another 8% to 10% drop, coinciding with a daily fair value (FVG) gap overlapping the 0.50–0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels. This area may attract liquidity and act as a potential launchpad for a bullish recovery.
Onchain data further supports this technical perspective. Glassnode’s Unrealized Price Distribution (URPD) for XRP shows a significant cluster of buyers in the $2.45 to $2.55 range, indicating a strong cost basis for many holders. This suggests that if prices revisit this area, buyers could defend it vigorously, setting the stage for a rebound.
XRP’s movement aligns with its fractal pattern from Q1. The altcoin has tested the $2.65 mark twice, but historical patterns suggest that a dip below this level into the liquid-heavy FVG could occur before a sustainable rise.
Another noteworthy similarity between the current situation and the prior fractal is the weakening pattern leading into the weekend, followed by an FVG sweep at the start of the week. Should this scenario unfold, XRP may test the $2.50 area as soon as Monday.
However, while the likeness is compelling, historical fractals do not guarantee exact repetition of price behavior, and the market may deviate from its previous patterns.
A decisive break above $2.90 could negate the bearish outlook early, but current market weakness leans toward one last dip into the $2.50 territory.
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XRP liquidity compression, ETF catalysts forecast volatility
Market researcher Sistine Research noted that XRP may be entering a significant expansion phase in the coming months. Their analysis pointed out that XRP’s narrow price movement over the last 10 weeks is tightening its order book and creating larger gaps between levels.
XRP is currently in its third phase of compression since the US elections in November 2024, and this phase is the tightest, based on three consecutively higher price points. Such conditions typically precede sharp breakouts when liquidity is released.
Crypto analyst Pelin Ay added that the spot market flows illustrate the ongoing struggle between buyers and sellers. The 90-day spot taker CVD indicates that sellers have been dominant, despite brief periods of buyer strength earlier in 2025. Sustained upward movement will require a notable volume shift from buyers, which has not yet occurred.
Meanwhile, ETF news is significant. Franklin Templeton’s XRP ETF decision has been postponed to Nov. 14, while REX/Osprey’s XRPR launched with nearly $38 million in initial trading volume. Analysts caution that optimism might already be partly priced in, increasing the risk for “sell the news” scenarios.
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This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
