Key takeaways:
Solana dropped to $192 on Thursday, completely erasing its rally to $253 within a week.
An impending spot ETF ruling on Oct. 10 may unlock greater institutional investments.
SOL’s RSI setup indicates a potential short-term bottom despite its overall correction.
Solana (SOL) fell below the $200 threshold on Thursday, nullifying its recent rise to an eight-month peak of $253. The 19% decline over the week has unsettled market momentum and sparked inquiries about near-term strength.
However, a potential catalyst might alter the situation. Grayscale’s spot SOL exchange-traded fund (ETF) is set for its first approval on Oct. 10, which could impact institutional capital flows similarly to BTC and ETH over the previous year.
While the REX Osprey Staking SOL ETF, introduced in July, does offer spot exposure, its structure is not as significant as a pure spot product. A Grayscale spot ETF would promote more direct institutional involvement, likely enhancing liquidity and broader adoption.
This decision marks just the first of several rulings. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) plans to review five additional applications, with a final deadline on Oct. 16, 2025, featuring proposals from Bitwise, 21Shares, VanEck, Grayscale, and Canary. Together, these applications reflect the increasing institutional interest in integrating SOL into mainstream investment offerings.
Advocates suggest that the timing could be crucial. Asset managers at Pantera Capital recently referred to SOL as “next in line for its institutional moment,” highlighting its under-allocation compared to BTC and ETH. Institutions allegedly hold about 16% of Bitcoin and 7% of Ether, while institutional ownership of SOL remains below 1%. Pantera Capital proposed that a spot ETF could expedite adoption, particularly as companies like Stripe and PayPal bolster their integrations with Solana.
Nonetheless, not all indicators suggest an imminent breakout. The prediction markets platform Polymarket currently attributes a mere 41% probability of SOL attaining a new all-time high in 2025, indicating continued caution even as ETF speculation intensifies.
Related: Australian fitness firm tanks 21% on Solana treasury gamble
Price indicator with an 80% hit rate signals SOL bottom
SOL’s price movements have exhibited notable volatility in the past three weeks. The token surged to $253 from $200 in a mere 12 days, but a swift reversal demonstrated weakening short-term momentum, as sellers regained territory more quickly than buyers had gained it.
Nevertheless, on higher timeframes, the overall trend remains positive. SOL continues to construct a pattern of higher highs and higher lows, maintaining a bullish daily structure. The ongoing correction is unfolding within the primary demand zone or order block between $200 and $185, which coincides with the 0.50–0.618 Fibonacci retracement range, a region typically observed for technical rebounds. Maintaining this zone could strengthen the uptrend and possibly reset momentum.
Dropping below the $185 mark would shift focus to the next order block between $170 and $156. Even though such a decrease would not instantly turn the daily chart bearish, it would significantly weaken the trend’s strength and likely provoke increased selling pressure.
On the intraday front, the four-hour chart reveals signs of seller exhaustion. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has once again dipped below 30, a level historically indicative of bottoms or higher lows for SOL.
Since April 2025, this setup has appeared five times, and in four instances, SOL experienced rapid recoveries. Should this pattern repeat, short-term relief might follow, as the higher timeframe correction unfolds.
Related: Solana open interest hits record 72M SOL, but why is price falling?
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
