Hyperliquid’s native token is approaching a critical “Sword of Damocles” moment with $500 million in monthly unlocks commencing on Nov. 29, as detailed by Maelstrom, the family office fund of BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes.
The Hyperliquid (HYPE) token will encounter its “first true test” on Nov. 29, marking the start of a 24-month vesting schedule, according to Maelstrom Monday.
This vesting schedule aims to distribute $11.9 billion in Hyperliquid (HYPE) tokens over two years for team members, leading analysts to predict substantial selling pressure. Current buybacks are only projected to absorb 17% of the anticipated monthly supply, leaving an estimated $410 million in potential overhang, as indicated by Maelstrom researcher Lukas Ruppert.
“Put yourself in the shoes of a Hyperliquid dev. You’ve worked insanely hard for years. A life-changing sum in tokens is beginning to vest; and it’s only one click away,” Ruppert stated.
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This monthly release poses a significant risk to Hyperliquid’s price stability. Even the increasing number of digital asset treasuries (DATs), such as Sonnet, are “merely a drop in the bucket compared to the imminent HYPE unlocks,” Ruppert explained.
Nasdaq-listed biotech firm Sonnet BioTherapeutics has partnered with a newly formed entity, Rorschach, to implement a HYPE treasury strategy, involving $583 million in HYPE tokens and over $305 million in cash, as reported by Cointelegraph on July 17.
The $305 million in cash will also be allocated for acquiring more HYPE tokens, which is insignificant compared to the token’s forthcoming unlocks.
This analysis comes shortly after Hayes sold all his HYPE tokens, reportedly using the proceeds for a new Ferrari, as disclosed by Cointelegraph earlier on Monday.
Despite Hayes predicting a 126-fold rally for the token by 2028, he acknowledged that the upcoming vesting phase might lead to increased volatility.
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Hyperliquid faces increasing competition from Aster
Competition is also heating up for decentralized exchange Hyperliquid.
On Thursday, the decentralized perpetuals exchange Aster, linked to Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao, briefly surpassed $2 billion in total value locked (TVL), following the launch of the Aster (APX) token, as stated by Cointelegraph.
“You don’t take away the crypto establishment’s lunch without facing challenges. Business is war,” commented a researcher from Maelstrom.
“CZ promoting Aster two months before unlocks? Likely not a coincidence.”
The HYPE token reached a new all-time high of $59.29 on Thursday, shortly after Zhao shared a chart for ASTER, the native token of a competing derivatives DEX.
Even with Hayes divesting his entire HYPE stake, he still believes in a potential 126-fold increase by 2028, which he expressed in a Monday X post.
Hayes initially forecasted a 126x surge for the HYPE token during the Webx 2025 Conference in Tokyo, driven by ongoing fiat debasement, which could lead to a stablecoin market source that might elevate HyperLiquid’s annualized fees to as much as $255 billion, up from the then-current annualized revenue of $1.2 billion.
Hayes is well-known in the crypto community for his audacious price predictions.
In April, he predicted Bitcoin (BTC) would exceed $250,000 by the end of 2025 if the US Federal Reserve enacted a pivot toward quantitative easing (QE), a process where the US Federal Reserve purchases bonds and injects money into the economy to reduce interest rates and stimulate spending during financial turmoil.
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