Bitcoin (BTC) kicks off the year’s most challenging month with fresh local lows and forecasts suggesting further price declines.
Bitcoin falls to $107,270 after the weekly open, then rebounds as volatility increases.
The US Labor Day holiday leaves traders uncertain about market reactions to new US tariff turmoil.
Gold is trending upward, but the outlook for crypto remains bleak, according to gold advocate Peter Schiff.
Institutional interest in Bitcoin is beginning to show signs of weakness, with August recording $750 million in ETF outflows.
September typically presents challenges for Bitcoin enthusiasts — will this year differ?
Traders maintain sub-$100,000 BTC price targets
Bitcoin started the week by recording new local lows at $107,270, as confirmed by data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.
A subsequent rebound pushed the pair towards $110,000, a typical volatility pattern for low-volume weekend and holiday trading.
Among traders, sentiment is cautious: some are awaiting a clearer support level, and they anticipate a retest of the $100,000 zone.
Others are seeking upside liquidity on exchange order books. With an overwhelming short market, a “squeeze” to target those positions is becoming increasingly appealing.
$BTC support
Beyond the 92k extreme target, these are the supports I see for Bitcoin.
I doubt it will drop through all these levels; that would surprise me significantly.
Hoping the bulls show up soon. pic.twitter.com/4oxtd95EJr
— Lourenço VS (@lourenco_vs) September 1, 2025
“Short liquidations are amassing between $112k – $115k,” noted popular trader CrypNuevo in a thread on X this past Sunday.
CrypNuevo had accurately predicted a drop to the $107,200 area based on existing bid liquidity.
“If this develops into a deeper pullback, I’d expect it to hit $100k as it’s a psychological level,” he added.
“As the price decreased, many long orders would stack at $100k, and a drop to $94k would make sense to trigger their stop-loss and liquidations, as well as fill the small CME gap below.”
Yet, CrypNuevo referred to the present lows as a “deviation,” while keeping an eye on another CME gap at $117,000.
Data from CoinGlass indicates that the $110,000 area is notably active, with price significantly interacting with existing liquidity during its Monday rebound.
Tariff challenges hinder key US employment numbers
US markets remain closed on Monday for Labor Day, leaving traders to await Tuesday’s assessment of the implications of the recent tariff confusion.
Late last week, a federal appeals court ruled that President Donald Trump exceeded his authority in implementing the tariffs, resulting in uncertainty.
The news triggered a rapid response in crypto but was announced after futures markets had already closed.
Trump later indicated that he would contest the tariffs’ removal, asserting that the US risked becoming a “third world nation.”
With volatility expected, risk-asset traders will also observe macroeconomic data ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision.
Unemployment claims are particularly crucial this week, as the Fed navigates rising inflation signals alongside weakening labor-market indicators.
“This week centers on the labor market,” summarized trading resource The Kobeissi Letter in an X thread.
“This signifies the last week of labor market statistics before the pivotal September Fed meeting.”
Markets hold a strong belief that the Sept. 17 meeting will result in the beginning of a anticipated series of rate cuts, facilitating liquidity into risk assets.
Data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows over 90% likelihood of a 0.25% reduction on Monday.
“Following a 1.0% rate cut in late 2024, the Fed has been on hold for the past eight months, as trading firm Mosaic Asset summarized in their latest newsletter, “The Market Mosaic.”
“Concerns regarding the labor market are the main driver for potential rate cuts, but the Fed may struggle if inflation persists.”
Gold approaches historical highs as Bitcoin falters
While Bitcoin and altcoins stagnate, one safe-haven asset is outperforming similarly to earlier in 2025.
Gold prices hit $3,489 per ounce on Monday, coming dangerously close to the all-time highs reached on April 22.
During that time, Bitcoin had been recovering from lows below $75,000, and on the day gold set its new record, Bitcoin surged by 6.7% to close near $93,500.
Kobeissi observed unusual trading behavior over the weekend in XAU/USD, which rallied toward the weekly close and continued through Labor Day.
Gold on a casual Sunday night during a 3-day weekend:
Rate cuts are approaching with inflation over 3%. pic.twitter.com/ZTOopKVte2
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) September 1, 2025
“Surprises in inflation may irritate the Fed, yet could serve as a major catalyst for the next bullish phase in gold prices,” Mosaic Asset added.
Mosaic highlighted that last week’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index data solidified gold’s recent rebound.
“This coincides with gold’s historical seasonality becoming a more favorable influence,” it remarked, indicating September as gold’s second-strongest month over the last 50 years.
Among gold advocates, a familiar narrative has surfaced. Peter Schiff, the prominent Bitcoin critic and chairman and chief economist at Europac, emphasized the contrast between traditional and “digital” gold over the weekend.
“Gold and silver breaking out is a major negative signal for Bitcoin,” he told his X followers, cautioning that BTC is “set to decline further.”
Institutional investors are pulling back
Bitcoin dipping below its previous all-time highs is beginning to impact investment behaviors.
Data from UK-based Farside Investors revealed that on Friday, US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) experienced net outflows of $126.7 million.
This marks a notable late shift from an otherwise hopeful week, where institutional investors were previously increasing BTC exposure despite the declining price.
Broader trends, however, look more precarious.
Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, noted that institutional Bitcoin purchases are at their lowest since early April.
“Institutional Bitcoin buying has dropped to its lowest point in months,” he observed alongside his firm’s data.
Despite this, combined institutional demand remains approximately 200% of the new BTC supply added daily.
In August, ETFs faced their second-worst month for outflows on record, as noted by network economist Timothy Peterson. These totaled $750 million.
Bitcoin ETFs recorded $750 million in withdrawals in August, marking their second worst month on record. pic.twitter.com/uTOU4wHhTr
— Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredvalue) August 30, 2025
Bitcoin marks its first post-halving “red” August
Bitcoin now faces the onset of its seasonally worst month.
Related: Bitcoin risks a Labor Day plunge to $105K as sellers take advantage of OG BTC whale threats
As Cointelegraph has reported, September historically yields average returns of -3.5% for BTC/USD, with the “best” performance over the past twelve years only achieving 7.3% gains.
Bitcoin closed August with a fourth consecutive “red” month, finishing with a 6.5% loss.
“Seasonality is indeed a factor,” Peterson pointed out alongside a chart comparing Bitcoin bull markets.
“Bitcoin has adhered to seasonality for 15 years; equity markets, over a century. It recurs and cannot be arbitraged away due to fixed factors like the tax year, school calendar, and agricultural cycles.”
An accompanying chart emphasized the lackluster performance typically seen in September, even during Bitcoin’s most bullish years.
Investor Mark Harvey noted that a “red” August signifies a first for Bitcoin in a post-halving year.
Harvey suggested this might be “evidence that $BTC is no longer conforming to the 4-year halving cycle due to increased institutional adoption,” stating that it isn’t a bearish indicator.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
