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Bitwise Asset Management has unveiled a long-term forecast indicating that the price of Bitcoin could reach $1.3 million per coin by 2035.
Summary
- Bitwise anticipates Bitcoin could reach $1.3M by 2035, leading to a $28 trillion market cap.
- This forecast is influenced by institutional investments, inflation protection, and a capped supply.
- Despite potential regulatory challenges and macroeconomic shocks, the long-term outlook remains optimistic.
In its August capital markets assumptions report, the firm overseeing more than $15 billion in assets presented this as its base case projection. This suggests an annual growth rate of 28.3% from the current level of approximately $112,000.
If this plays out, the market capitalization of Bitcoin (BTC) could soar to nearly $28 trillion, surpassing the total value of the global gold market. Bitwise also provided alternative scenarios, estimating a bullish case of $3 million per coin and a bearish case of $88,000.
Though ambitious, the report highlights that institutions are increasingly recognizing Bitcoin as a structural asset class rather than merely a speculative investment.
Factors Contributing to Bitcoin’s Long-Term Growth
The report points to three primary drivers for Bitcoin’s upward trajectory. The first is institutional adoption. Following the approval of U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in early 2024, institutional inflows have surged, with entities now responsible for over 75% of trading volume.
Bitwise estimates that demand is currently outpacing supply by a factor of six. Corporate treasuries, pensions, and sovereign funds are starting to allocate resources to Bitcoin, indicating a significant integration into the traditional financial framework.
The second driver is the global pursuit of inflation hedges. Rising U.S. debt levels and declining purchasing power of fiat currencies have prompted investors to turn to tangible assets. Bitwise reports that $10,000 held in U.S. dollars since 2015 has depreciated by around 40%. Bitcoin’s portability and capped supply position it as a contemporary alternative to gold.
Lastly, the report underscores Bitcoin’s fixed issuance schedule. With less than 1.1 million coins remaining to be mined and post-halving rewards now at approximately 450 BTC daily, scarcity is tightening. Chief investment officer Matt Hougan emphasized that the inelastic supply is “the most critical factor behind Bitcoin’s future prospects.”
Risks and Challenges
Bitwise acknowledges potential risks. Regulatory changes remain a significant concern, particularly if governments revise laws regarding custody, taxes, or access to ETFs.
Moreover, macroeconomic shocks could impede adoption, which might stem from technological competition or liquidity crises. The company expects recurring 30–60% drawdowns, despite a decrease in overall volatility.
Nevertheless, Bitwise contends that the overarching trend is evident. Bitcoin is transitioning from speculative fringes to being a central asset in global investment portfolios. If the predictions materialize, the next decade could see Bitcoin directly competing with gold and U.S. Treasuries as a standard store of value.
